Abstract
This paper overviews the traditional energy production methods and examines possible modelling techniques that extend current procedures and improve the probabilistic techniques of generating unit's energy production processes. Extension of previous works has been attempted in developing and applying convolving technique based on Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT). This technique can be used in power system reliability evaluation studies to deduce the Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT) and the Capacity-Availability Table (CAT) with least and accurate computational time. These tables can be used with the present and future Load Duration Curve (LDC) to evaluate the Expected Energy Supplied (epsilon ES) by each unit residing in the system as well as the Expected Energy Not Supplied (epsilon ES) due to unit(s) unavailability due to outage occurrence. The outcome of this work is a smart, efficient and fast probabilistic model that can be adopted as an appropriate model for an optimal economic unit loading and energy production as well as for long-range generation expansion planning.