Abstract
Obesity is a global phenomenon that is gaining momentum and is gaining the attention of everyone, especially healthcare professionals, because of its alleged relationship to a variety of medical issues. The impact of obesity on healthcare expenditures is, in general, very important and in particular in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This article proposes models for predicting the future costs associated with obesity-related healthcare over the next 12 years until 2030. An ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series analysis was carried out to model the data collected from Saudi Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health Organization and World Bank. The results showed that the proportion of overweight individuals will increase in a slow way over the next 12 years until 2030, while the proportion of the obese population will steadily increase and could reach 42% of the total population by 2030. Regarding the morbid obesity, it will also increase substantially to reach 9%. These trends could significantly affect the actual healthcare costs.
Given the relevance of these findings, decision-makers in the healthcare sector should take into account the evolution of these statistics and prepare to face a growing numbers of medical problems related to obesity. We further propose, in the discussion, recommendations for decision-makers in this sector as well as avenues for future research.