Abstract
We develop an optimal maintenance policy for a road section to minimize the total maintenance cost over the infinite horizon when some deterioration and decision parameters are not observable. Both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions are possible through the application of various thicknesses of resurfacing layers. We use a two-phase deterioration process based on two parameters: the longitudinal cracking percentage and the deterioration growth rate. Our deterioration model is a state-based model based on the state-dependent Gamma process for the longitudinal cracking percentage and the Bilateral Gamma process for the deterioration growth rate. Moreover the maintenance decision is constrained by a maximum road thickness that makes the maintenance decisions more complex as it becomes how much surface layer to add as well as to remove. Because only one of the two deterioration parameters is observable, we formulate the problem as a partially observed Markov decision process and solve it using a grid-based value iteration algorithm. Numerical examples have shown that our model provides a preventive maintenance policy that slows down the initiation as well as the propagation of longitudinal cracks and that may ameliorate the road state to a better than as-good-as-new one by altering its composition through additive resurfacing layers.