Abstract
This study investigates future medical waste generation and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from medical waste collection and transportation activities in the city of Kocaeli, Turkey, between the years of 2020 and 2040. Population predictions were carried out by using Ilbank method, arithmetic method and United Nations Development (UNDP) method. Then, medical waste amounts were calculated based on the predicted populations. Among the three methods, arithmetic method was seemed to reflect the most reliable prediction. GHG emissions were calculated based on the fuel consumed by medical waste collection vehicles. The targeted GHGs were CH4 and CO2. Results of this work showed that the total medical waste generated per year was predicted to increase from 2,978 tons in 2020 to 5,203 tons in 2040. Finally, it was determined in this study that medical waste collection and transport would generate a total GHG emission of 11,229-ton CO2-e from 2020 to 2040. Furthermore, average global warming factor (GWF) was calculated as 0.00013 tCO(2)-e per ton of medical waste collected and transported. This study showed that medical waste collection and transportation generates significant amounts of GHG emissions. Results of this study will guide the local authorities when they plan to replace diesel fuel with alternative fuel types.