Abstract
Sunflower is one of the most cultivated oil seed crop in the world. Hence, the adaptation strategies for sunflower production and food security are crucial for mitigating the negative impacts of climate change. The experiments were conducted for two years to assess the climate change impacts and developing suitable adaptation strategies for sunflower in the arid environment. The CROPGRO and APSIM-Sunflower models were calibrated and evaluated with an observed experimental data among the best sowing dates at 1st January with nitrogen @ 240 kg ha(-1). Where root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated achene yield was 121.16 and 167.91 respectively. The future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-8.5 for years 2040-2069 were obtained from the Global Climate Model (GCMs). The increase in maximum and minimum temperature by 3.5 degrees C and 4 degrees C with 30% less precipitation was observed under hotdry climate conditions. The simulations with these projected temperatures decreased achene yield 6 to 24% with the CROPGRO model and 8 to 28% with the APSIM-sunflower model with current agricultural practices in mid-century (2040-2069). The models simulate more achene yield 20% by CROPGRO and 18% by APSIM-Sunflower with the adaptations measured on current agricultural practices to mitigate the impact of climate change. For all GCMs, 11-20% achene yield would be increased with these adaptation measures in mid-century. Therefore, the improved crop genetic (phenology) and agronomic practices for sunflower as an adaptation strategy could mitigate the impacts of climate change.