Abstract
We present an accurate and easy-to-compute approximation of the transition probabilities and the associated Arrow-Debreu (AD) prices for the inhomogeneous geometric Brownian motion (IGBM) model for interest rates, default intensities or volatilities. Through this procedure, dubbed exponent expansion, transition probabilities and AD prices are obtained as a power series in time to maturity. This provides remarkably accurate results — for time horizons up to several years — even when truncated after the first few terms. For farther time horizons, the exponent expansion can be combined with a fast numerical convolution to obtain high-precision results.