Abstract
China is the world’s top water consumer and CO2 emitter. The government has deployed Three Red Lines (TRLs) to improve water security by 2030 and committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s industries, which account for half of national CO2 emissions and >20% water withdrawals, is key to decarbonization and water conservation. However, there remains a lack of consensus regarding whether industrial emission reduction and water saving can be achieved simultaneously. Here, we adopt a general equilibrium model using a self-developed high-resolution provincial water-use inventory based on enterprise census data, to uncover the impacts achieving carbon neutrality would have on industrial water use across China. Meeting carbon neutrality enables the achievement of the TRL-associated industrial water-use target and can reduce industrial water use by 24% in 2060. Nevertheless, if inter-provincial industrial relocation occurs, water use could rise in certain provinces, reducing the above water-saving potential. Stricter and coordinated policies and technological advancements are essential to successfully address climate and water challenges concurrently.
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•Energy-intensive industries will bring the significant carbon emission reduction•Carbon neutrality will save 24% of the national industrial water use in 2060•Carbon neutrality helps to attain industrial water-use targets in 22 provinces•The power sector saves water use by 50% in China and 65% in South China
China, the world’s biggest CO2 emitter, has officially committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, with a key focus on decarbonizing the industrial sector. Due to severe water scarcity, China has also imposed strict restrictions on industrial water use by 2030. Industries hence play a vital role in addressing the country’s climate and water challenges. However, it remains unclear whether industrial water use will decrease or increase as emissions are reduced. Through combining a numerical model and enterprise-level water-use data, we find that achieving carbon neutrality could potentially reduce industrial water use by a quarter and meet the strict industrial water-use target. However, at a provincial level, it is possible that 9 out of 31 provinces will struggle to meet water-use targets in a carbon-neutral future, unless policymakers deploy more coordinated climate-water strategies.
Climate change and water scarcity are challenging sustainable development. The industrial sector that drives global CO2 emissions and water withdrawals is urgently seeking integrated climate-water solutions. Yet it remains unclear how water use will respond to decarbonization. Here, we answer this question by examining China’s industry sector using a granular water-use inventory and a provincial-level general equilibrium model. At the national level, achieving carbon neutrality is found to reduce industrial water consumption by 24%.