Abstract
Monitoring decadal shoreline change is essential to understand the influence of coastal processes on the coastline. The shoreline is constantly shaped by natural and anthropogenic factors, and so, it is critical to understand decadal trends. The prediction of future shoreline positions is a must for effective long-term coastal zone management. This study was conducted along a 90-km-stretch of the coastline from the mouth of the Haldi River (Purba Medinipur) in the Northeast to the Subarnarekha estuary (Balasore) in the Southwest. The primary objectives of the study were to analyze the decadal shoreline migration using the End Point Rate (EPR) method and then predict future shoreline change prediction using the Kalman Filter method. Shoreline positions were digitized after extracting the shorelines using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) from Multi-temporal (1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020) and Multisensor (Landsat TM, ETM + , and OLI) satellite data. A total of 887 transects were cast to compute change statistics of the time series shoreline. It was observed that the average shoreline change rate was - 8.41 m/year in the periods of 1990-2000 and 2000-2010, and - 8.80 m/year from 2010 to 2020. Accretion along this coastal stretch is caused by the growth of morphological features such as sand bars, beaches, and dunes. We also found that erosion occurred from 1990 to 2000 along the coastline of Bhograi, Ramnagar-I, Ramnagar-II, a few parts of Contai-I, Khejuri-I, and the Nandigram-I coastal block. Accretion mostly occurred due to Land reclamation in the Northern portion of Bhograi, Contai-1 blocks and Nandigram- I block from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Regression Coefficient values were computed for the future shoreline prediction of 2031 and 2041. The calculated RMSE value of +/- 4.7 m and value of 0.97 shows a good relationship between the actual and predicted coastline of 2020. This study concludes that the coastline of Purba Medinipur-Balasore experienced severe erosion and needs management action and also proves the efficiency of the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool for decadal analysis and prediction of shoreline change. The findings of this study may help the coastal planners, environmentalists, and coastal managers in preparing both short-term and long-term coastal zone management plans.