Abstract
•Herd immunity has been a controversial tactic in tackling COVID-19.•Infections in Yemen followed a tremendous downward trend from September 2020.•Yemen was unable to impose a coordinated nationwide lockdown due to conflict.•Mortality in Yemen is not as predicted, even in the absence of preventive measures.•There is a possibility that Yemen is moving towards herd immunity.
The first case of COVID-19 in Yemen was confirmed on 10 April 2020. Having faced with a six-year long conflict that has destroyed half of its healthcare facilities and displaced millions, predictions of infections and mortality in Yemen suggested a looming healthcare catastrophe. Difficulty in implementing coordinated lockdowns and preventive measures due to the daily labor working nature of the majority of the population, provided the perfect breeding ground for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, official figures of infections and mortality are very low and there have not been confirmed reports of excess mortality. This could indicate that Yemen is silently marching towards forced herd immunity. Seroprevalence studies will provide useful insight into the COVID-19 transmission trajectory in Yemen, which can serve as a guide in planning vaccine distribution strategies and allocating the limited funds wisely.