Abstract
It appears that most of the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease is due to a reduction of the three main risk factors: high cholesterol, high blood pressure and smoking. Cross-sectional population studies were carried out for the years 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987 and 1992. A decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease of 44% in men and 49% in women was predicted based upon the changing levels of the three risk factors between 1972 and 1992. Between 1972 and 1992, cholesterol levels decreased 13% in men and 17.6% in women, blood pressure decreased 9.2% in men and 13.3% in women. Fifty-three percent of men smoked in 1972, compared to 37% in 1992. The prevalence of smoking among women increased from 11% to 20%. The actual observed decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease between 1972 and 1992 was 55% in men and 68% in women.