Abstract
In an era of anthropocene, threatened and endemic species with small population sizes and habitat specialists experience a greater global conservation concern in view of being at higher risk of extinction. Predicting and plotting appropriate potential habitats for such species is a rational method for monitoring and restoring their dwindling populations in expected territories. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) coalesces species existence sites with environmental raster layers to construct models that describe possible distributions of plant species. The present study is aimed to study the potential distribution and cultivation hotspots for reintroducing the high value, vulnerable medicinal herb (Rheum webbianum) in the Union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh using population attributes and ecological niche modelling approach. Sixty-three populations inventoried from twenty-eight areas display a significant change in the phytosociological attributes on account of various anthropogenic threats. The current potential habitats coincide with actual distribution records and the mean value of Area Under Curve (AUC) was 0.98 and the line of predicted omission was almost adjacent to omission in training samples, thus validating a robustness of the model. The potential habitat suitability map based on the current climatic conditions predicted a total of 103760 km2 as suitable area for the growth of Rheum webbianum. Under the future climatic conditions, there is a significant reduction in the habitat suitability ranging from -78531.34 Km2 (RCP 4.5 for 2050) to -77325.81 (RCP 8.5 for 2070). Furthermore, there is a slight increase in the suitable habitats under future climatic conditions, ranging from +21.99 Km2 under RCP 8.5 (2050) to +3.14 Km2 under RCP 4.5 (2070). The Jackknife tests indicated Precipitation of Driest Month (BIO14) as the most contributing climatic variable in governing the distribution of R. webbianum. Therefore, scientifically sound management strategies are urgently needed to save whatever populations are left in-situ to protect this species from getting extinct. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations of R. webbianum on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species with specific habitat requirements by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other.