Abstract
•We explored the factors that influence the intention to use public transport.•We estimated fuel consumptions and pollutants emissions reductions.•Tests identified no spatial autocorrelations between intention to shift and residence location.•In total, 53% of participants were willing to shift to public transportation.
Public transit (PT) is the backbone of a sustainable transport system. This study aims to investigate commuters’ initial intentions to shift to PT in a car-oriented city without a PT, quantifying the direct economic and environmental impacts. The study considers data from a recent survey conducted in Medina, Saudi Arabia. Analyses are based on a stated-preference (SP) survey in conjunction with spatial analysis approaches. SP results show that 53% of participants are willing to shift to PT, with no spatial autocorrelation existing between the participants’ willingness to use PT and their residential zones. Logistic regression indicates that participants who used PT abroad are more likely to shift whenever PT becomes available in their city. Equally, gender and vehicular occupancy rate determine participants’ intention to shift to PT. The results show that for each 1% of would-be PT commuters, a reduction of 0.79% in CO2 emissions is obtained.