Abstract
The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a
mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms,
which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to
calculate the local-level reproduction numbers—expected numbers of secondary infections
caused by one infected farm—for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then
visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of
transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of
disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is
important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures
against FMD outbreaks.