Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Mohsen Naghavi; Laurie B Marczak; Michael Kutz; Katya Anne Shackelford; Megha Arora; Molly Miller-Petrie; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Nadia Akseer; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khurshid Alam; Suliman A Alghnam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Olatunde Aremu; Amit Arora; Mohsen Asadi-Lari; Reza Assadi; Tesfay Mehari Atey; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; James R Bennett; Ashish Bhalla; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Arebu Issa Bilal; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Alexandra Brazinova; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I Dargan; Diego De Leo; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Eric L Ding; Huyen Phuc Do; David Teye Doku; Kerrie E Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Dumessa Edessa; Ziad El-Khatib; Aman Yesuf Endries; Alireza Esteghamati; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Valery L Feigin; Florian Fischer; Kyle J Foreman; Richard Charles Franklin; Nancy Fullman; Neal D Futran; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Josep Maria Haro; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Caitlin Hawley; Delia Hendrie; Martha Híjar; Guoqing Hu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L James; Sudha Jayaraman; Jost B Jonas; Amaha Kahsay; Amir Kasaeian; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Young-Ho Khang; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri; Christian Kieling; Yun Jin Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Kristopher J Krohn; G Anil Kumar; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C Lansingh; Heidi Jane Larson; Shai Linn; Raimundas Lunevicius; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Amanda J Mason-Jones; Richard Matzopoulos; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Tuomo J Meretoja; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Ted R Miller; Shafiu Mohammed; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rintaro Mori; Devina Nand; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Quyen Le Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; George C Patton; Michael R Phillips; Suzanne Polinder; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Ali Rowhani-Rahbar; Mahdi Safdarian; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Joseph S Salama; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Nigussie Tadesse Sharew; Ivy Shiue; Jasvinder A Singh; Mekonnen Sisay; Vegard Skirbekk; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Dan J Stein; Mark Andrew Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Mamta Swaroop; Bryan L Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Fentaw Tadese; Bach Xuan Tran; Tung Thanh Tran; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Vasily Vlassov; Andrea Werdecker; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Simon I Hay; Stephen S Lim; Alan D Lopez; Ali H Mokdad; Theo Vos; Christopher J L Murray; Global Burden of Disease 2016 Injury Collaborators

doi:10.1001/jama.2018.10060

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Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Mohsen Naghavi, Laurie B Marczak, Michael Kutz, Katya Anne Shackelford, Megha Arora, Molly Miller-Petrie, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Nadia Akseer, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Khurshid Alam, …

JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association, Vol.320(8), pp.792-814

28/08/2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2018.10060

PMCID: PMC6143020

PMID: 30167700

Abstract

Adolescent

Adult

Age Distribution

Aged

Aged, 80 and over

Child

Child, Preschool

Female

Firearms - statistics & numerical data

Global Health - statistics & numerical data

Homicide - statistics & numerical data

Humans

Infant

Infant, Newborn

Male

Middle Aged

Mortality - trends

Sex Distribution

Suicide - statistics & numerical data

Wounds, Gunshot - mortality

Young Adult

Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Firearm ownership and access. Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

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Title: Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016
Creators - without role: Mohsen Naghavi - University of Washington
Laurie B Marczak - University of Washington
Michael Kutz - University of Washington
Katya Anne Shackelford - University of Washington
Megha Arora - University of Washington
Molly Miller-Petrie - University of Washington
Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour - Higher National School of Veterinary Medicine, Algiers, Algeria
Nadia Akseer - University of Toronto
Rajaa M Al-Raddadi - King Abdulaziz University
Khurshid Alam - University of Western Australia
Suliman A Alghnam - King Abdullah International Medical Research Center
Carl Abelardo T Antonio - University of the Philippines Manila
Olatunde Aremu - Birmingham City University
Amit Arora - Sydney Local Health District
Mohsen Asadi-Lari - International Relations Department, Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
Reza Assadi - Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Tesfay Mehari Atey - Mekelle University
Leticia Avila-Burgos - Center of Health System Research, The National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
Ashish Awasthi - Public Health Foundation of India
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla - General Office for Research and Technological Transfer, Peruvian National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru
Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo - University of Auckland
Till Winfried Bärnighausen - Harvard University
Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi - University of California, Los Angeles
Masoud Behzadifar - Lorestan University of Medical Sciences
Meysam Behzadifar - Lorestan University of Medical Sciences
James R Bennett - University of Washington
Ashish Bhalla - Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research
Zulfiqar A Bhutta - Aga Khan University
Arebu Issa Bilal - Addis Ababa University
Guilherme Borges - Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Psychiatry Ramón de la Fuente, Mexico City, Mexico
Rohan Borschmann - University of Melbourne
Alexandra Brazinova - Comenius University Bratislava
Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon - Medicina
Félix Carvalho - Universidade do Porto
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela - Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Lalit Dandona - Public Health Foundation of India
Rakhi Dandona - Public Health Foundation of India
Paul I Dargan - King's College London
Diego De Leo - Griffith University
Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne - University of Peradeniya
Eric L Ding - Harvard University
Huyen Phuc Do - Duy Tan University
David Teye Doku - University of Tampere
Kerrie E Doyle - RMIT University
Tim Robert Driscoll - University of Sydney
Dumessa Edessa - Haramaya University
Ziad El-Khatib - Karolinska Institutet
Aman Yesuf Endries - Millennium Engineering and Integration
Alireza Esteghamati - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Andre Faro - Department of Psychology, Federal University of Sergipe, Sao Cristovao, Brazil
Farshad Farzadfar - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Valery L Feigin - Auckland University of Technology
Florian Fischer - Bielefeld University
Kyle J Foreman - University of Washington
Richard Charles Franklin - James Cook University
Nancy Fullman - University of Washington
Neal D Futran - University of Washington
Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot - Jimma University
Reyna Alma Gutiérrez - Epidemiological and Psychosocial Investigations, National Institute of Psychiatry Ramon de la Fuente, Mexico City, Mexico
Nima Hafezi-Nejad - Johns Hopkins University
Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli - Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu - Mekelle University
Josep Maria Haro - Department of Medicine, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Hamid Yimam Hassen - Unit of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University Hospital Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
Caitlin Hawley - University of Washington
Delia Hendrie - Curtin University
Martha Híjar - CISS, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
Guoqing Hu - Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi - University of Liberia
Mihajlo Jakovljevic - University of Kragujevac
Spencer L James - University of Washington
Sudha Jayaraman - Virginia Commonwealth University
Jost B Jonas - Capital Medical University
Amaha Kahsay - Mekelle University
Amir Kasaeian - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Peter Njenga Keiyoro - University of Nairobi
Yousef Khader - Jordan University of Science and Technology
Ibrahim A Khalil - University of Washington
Young-Ho Khang - Seoul National University
Jagdish Khubchandani - Ball State University
Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri - Lund University
Christian Kieling - Child & Adolescent Psychiatry Division, Hospital of Clinics of Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
Yun Jin Kim - Xiamen University Malaysia
Soewarta Kosen - Independent Consultant, Jakarta, Indonesia
Kristopher J Krohn - University of Washington
G Anil Kumar - Public Health Foundation of India
Faris Hasan Lami - Department of Community and Family Medicine, Academy of Medical Science, Baghdad, Iraq
Van C Lansingh - Institute of Ophthalmology
Heidi Jane Larson - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Shai Linn - University of Haifa
Raimundas Lunevicius - University of Liverpool
Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek - Damietta University
Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek - Faculty
Reza Malekzadeh - Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
Deborah Carvalho Malta - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Amanda J Mason-Jones - Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, United Kingdom
Richard Matzopoulos - University of Cape Town
Peter T N Memiah - Department of Public Health, University of West Florida, Pensacola
Walter Mendoza - United Nations Population Fund
Tuomo J Meretoja - University of Helsinki
Haftay Berhane Mezgebe - School of Pharmacy, Academy of Medical Science, Baghdad, Iraq
Ted R Miller - Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
Shafiu Mohammed - Ahmadu Bello University
Maziar Moradi-Lakeh - Iran University of Medical Sciences
Rintaro Mori - National Center For Child Health and Development
Devina Nand - Accamargo Cancer Center, São Paulo, Brazil
Cuong Tat Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Quyen Le Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum - Taipei Medical University
Felix Akpojene Ogbo - Western Sydney University
Andrew T Olagunju - University of Lagos
George C Patton - Murdoch Children's Research Institute
Michael R Phillips - Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Suzanne Polinder - Erasmus MC
Farshad Pourmalek - University of British Columbia
Mostafa Qorbani - Alborz University of Medical Sciences
Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Mahfuzar Rahman - BRAC
Rajesh Kumar Rai - University of Göttingen
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat - Yonsei University
David Laith Rawaf - University College London Hospitals, London, United Kingdom
Salman Rawaf - Public Health England
Ali Rowhani-Rahbar - University of Washington
Mahdi Safdarian - Iran University of Medical Sciences
Saeid Safiri - Iranshahr University
Rajesh Sagar - All India Institute of Medical Sciences
Joseph S Salama - University of Washington
Juan Sanabria - Case Western Reserve University
Milena M Santric Milicevic - University of Belgrade
Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez - Faculty
Benn Sartorius - University of KwaZulu-Natal
Maheswar Satpathy - Utkal University
David C Schwebel - University of Alabama at Birmingham
Soraya Seedat - University of Cape Town
Sadaf G Sepanlou - Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
Masood Ali Shaikh - Independent Consultant, Karachi, Pakistan
Nigussie Tadesse Sharew - Debre Berhan University
Ivy Shiue - Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Jasvinder A Singh - University of Alabama at Birmingham
Mekonnen Sisay - Haramaya University
Vegard Skirbekk - Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Adauto Martins Soares Filho - Department of Diseases and Noncommunicable Diseases and Health Promotion, Federal Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil
Dan J Stein - University of Cape Town
Mark Andrew Stokes - Deakin University
Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan - Ahmadu Bello University
Mamta Swaroop - Northwestern University
Bryan L Sykes - University of California, Irvine
Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos - Universitat de València
Fentaw Tadese - Wollo University
Bach Xuan Tran - Hanoi Medical University
Tung Thanh Tran - Duy Tan University
Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja - Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki
Tommi Juhani Vasankari - UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland
Vasily Vlassov - Department of Health Care Management and Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Andrea Werdecker - Federal Institute for Population Research
Pengpeng Ye - National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention
Paul Yip - University of Hong Kong
Naohiro Yonemoto - Kyoto University
Mustafa Z Younis - Tsinghua University
Zoubida Zaidi - Faculty
Maysaa El Sayed Zaki - Mansoura University
Simon I Hay - University of Washington
Stephen S Lim - University of Washington
Alan D Lopez - University of Melbourne
Ali H Mokdad - University of Washington
Theo Vos - University of Washington
Christopher J L Murray - University of Washington
Global Burden of Disease 2016 Injury Collaborators
Publication Details: JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association, Vol.320(8), pp.792-814
Identifiers: 9921848808331
Academic Unit: King Abdulaziz University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article