Abstract
Background: Saudi Arabia (SA) has committed to the WHO 'halt obesity' target, to shift prevalence to 2010 levels by 2025. We estimated the future benefits of reducing obesity in SA on the burden of obesity-related type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and liver disease under two scenarios: 1) SA meets the 'halt obesity' target; 2) population body mass index (BMI) is reduced by 1% from 2020. Methods: We developed a dynamic microsimulation of 100 million working-age people (20-59 years) in SA between 2010 and 2040. Model inputs included population demographic, epidemiological and healthcare cost data. In our two policy scenarios, we employed population BMI and compared predicted disease incidence and associated healthcare costs to a baseline 'no change' scenario. Results: Adults <35 years are expected to meet the 'halt obesity' target, but those >35 years are not. If SA's working-age population achieved either scenario, >1.15 million combined cases of T2DM, liver disease and liver cancer could be avoided by 2040. Healthcare cost savings for 'halt obesity' and 1% reduction scenarios are $43.9 and $30.9 billion USD respectively. Conclusions: SA's younger working-age population is set to meet the 'halt obesity' target, but those aged 35-59 are off-track. Even a modest annual 1% BMI reduction could result in substantial future health and economic benefits. Our findings strongly support initiatives to reduce populationlevel obesity, particularly amongst working-age people >35 years of ag