Abstract
Forecasting of sediment load (SL) is essential for reservoir operations, design of water resource structures, risk management, water resource planning and for preventing natural disasters in the river basin systems. Direct measurement of SL is difficult, labour intensive, and expensive. The development of an accurate and reliable model for forecasting the SL is required. Sediment transport is highly non-linear and is influenced by a variety of factors. Forecasting of the SL using various conventional methods is not highly accurate because of the association of various complex phenomena. In this study, major key factors such as rock type (RT), relief (R), rainfall (RF), water discharge (WD), temperature (T), catchment area (CA), and SL are recognized in developing the one-step-ahead SL forecasting model in the Mahanadi River (MR), which is among India's largest rivers. Artificial neural networks (ANN) in conjunction with multi-objective genetic algorithm (ANN-MOGA)-based forecasting models were developed for forecasting the SL in the MR. The ANN-MOGA model was employed to optimize the two competing objective functions (bias and error variance) with simultaneous optimization of all associated ANN parameters. The performances of the proposed novel model were finally compared to other existing methods to verify the forecasting capability of the model. The ANN-MOGA model improved the performance by 12.81% and 10.19% compared to traditional AR and MAR regression models, respectively. The results suggested that hybrid ANN-MOGA models outperform traditional autoregressive and multivariate autoregressive forecasting models. Overall, hybrid ANN-MOGA intelligent techniques are recommended for the forecasting of SL in rivers because of their relatively better performance as compared to other existing models and simplicity of application.