Abstract
Due to armed conflicts, the sudden changes in land cover are among the most drastic and recurring shocks on an international scale, and thus, have become a major source of threat to soil and water conservation. Throughout this analysis, the impact of land cover change on spatio-temporal variations of soil erosion from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019 was investigated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. The goal was to identify the characteristics and variations of soil erosion under armed conflicts in the basin of the Northern Al-Kabeer river in Syria. The soil erosion rate is 4 t ha(-1) year(-1) with a standard deviation of 6.4 t ha(-1) year(-1). In addition, the spatial distribution of erosion classes was estimated. Only about 10.1% of the basin is subject to a tolerable soil erosion rate and 79.9% of the study area experienced erosion at different levels. The soil erosion area of regions with no changes was 10%. The results revealed an increase in soil erosion until 2013/2014 and a decrease during the period from 20013/2014 to 2018/2019. This increase is a result of forest fires under armed conflict, particularly toward the steeper slopes. Coniferous forest as well as transitional woodland and scrub are the dominant land cover types in the upper part of the basin, for which the average post-fire soil loss rates (caused by factor C) were 200% to 800% higher than in the pre-fire situation. In the period from 2013/2014 to 2019/2020, soil erosion was mitigated due to a ceasefire that was agreed upon after 2016, resulting in decreased human pressures on soils in contested areas. By comparing 2009/2010 (before war) with 2018/2019 (at the end of the war stage), it can be concluded that the change in C factors slowed down the deterioration trend of soil erosion and reduced the average soil erosion rate in more than half of the basin by about 10-75%. The area concerned is located in the western part of the basin and is relatively far from the centers of armed conflicts. In contrast, the areas with increased soil erosion by about 60-400% are situated in the northeast and east, with shorter distances to armed conflict centers. These findings can be explained by forest fires, after which the burned forests were turned into agricultural land or refugee camps and road areas. Understanding the complex biophysical and socio-economic interactions of exposure to land loss is a key to guarantee regional environmental protection and to conserve the ecological quality of soil and forest systems.