Abstract
Aims. To investigate the relationship of body mass index and serum adipokines with incidence of diabetes in men. Material and methods. Ten-year cohort study of a random population sample of 1011 men aged 35-69 years from the MONICA-Catalonia survey (1986-1988). WHO-MONICA protocol and the US Hispanic NHANES diabetes questionnaire were applied. Fasting serum glucose and lipids were measured by enzymatic methods, adipokines and insulin by Luminex xMAP technology, and hs-CRP by nephelometry in stored baseline samples (-80 degrees C). Type2 diabetes was defined as fasting glucose >= 7.0 mmol/L or diagnosed diabetes. Incident diabetes was defined as absence of these criteria at baseline but presence at re-examination. Cox regression analysis was used. Results. Incidence of diabetes (n = 85) was 10.3/1000 person-years, increasing significantly with BMI but decreasing by quartiles of adiponectin. Incidence increased above median BMI and glucose (45.3/1000 person-years, OR = 19.97). Log-adiponectin associated with reduced risk of diabetes after multivariate adjustment (HR = 0.24, 95% CI 0.08-0.72), with significant modification of this effect by baseline glycaemia. C-reactive protein was not a significant factor. Leptin lost strength when adjusted for BMI. Conclusions. In a population with relatively high diabetes incidence, BMI and glucose were strong risk factors, while adiponectin protected against diabetes, especially in men with high glycaemic level.