Abstract
China has committed to peaking its CO2 emissions by 2030 in order to achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality target. Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) are an important area to decarbonize, given the continuously rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in this sector. Various low-carbon options have emerged, yet a comprehensive understanding of the extent to which these options can decarbonize HDT throughout the life cycle remains limited. Here, we adopt a life-cycle analysis to assess and compare the GHG mitigation potential ofhighly efficient diesel engines, battery-electrics, and hydrogen fuel cells for China’s class-8 HDTs in 2030. Results show that all three options could enable >38% life-cycle GHG reductions. The battery-electric option, however, requires well-established fast-charging infrastructures to maintain the freight-carrying capacity that will otherwise be compromised by larger batteries. Hydrogen fuel cells can attain 80% reduction when paired with low-carbon hydrogen. Hybrid strategies, including improving engine efficiency, decarbonizing power grids, optimizing freight logistics, and incentivizing behavioral changes, are necessary for the efficient and effective HDT decarbonization that is key to China achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
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•No near-term silver bullet: target the right technology for the right duty-cycles•Efficient diesel engine, battery-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell can enable >38% GHGs reduction•Advanced trucks paired with low-carbon energies can reduce >70% life-cycle GHGs•Hybrid strategies are required for an orderly, effective, and efficient HDT decarbonization
Heavy duty trucks (HDTs) are being increasingly used to move large volumes of goods within and between countries. HDTs are an increasingly large component of the global trade network, and China has the world’s largest HDT fleet. Unfortunately, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with HDTs are also increasing. This poses a challenge to countries looking to decarbonize and reach net-zero GHG emissions. Lower-carbon options, like efficient engines, electric trucks, and hydrogen fuel cells (HFCs), are available, but each of these options has trade-offs: diesel engine still emits GHGs, electricity for electric trucks is still sourced from fossil fuels, HFCs are not yet entirely low-carbon, and bigger, heavier batteries required for freight range demand can compromise carrying capacity and require critical materials. Focusing on China’s class-8 HDTs, we analyzed these trade-offs throughout the technologies’ life cycles and found that, while all options individually can reduce GHGs by at least 38%, pairing these options with other strategies, such as renewable fuels, fast-charging facilities, cleaner power grids, and lower-carbon hydrogen, could double GHG emissions savings.
Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China’s heavy-freight logistics is imperative given the sector’s continuously growing GHGs. Advanced diesel engine, battery-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell are available options, but to what degree they can reduce GHGs throughout the life cycle remains unclear. Here, we evaluate the mitigation potential of these options for China’s class-8 heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) in 2030 using a life-cycle approach. Results show that all options can enable life cycle GHGs reduction, with the prospect of exceeding 70% reductions when combined with low-carbon energies.