Abstract
Wind power generation integrated microgrids have become a promising choice for power utilities, despite their susceptibility to future climatic conditions. This is partly due to the high cost to be paid to meet the rapid increase in loads and the newly built transmission systems. This paper proposes a framework to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on the reliability performance of a microgrid system connected to an offshore wind farm through an HVDC link. The reliability performance is investigated under different CO2 emission scenarios and time spectra, ranging from medium to long term. The degradation of wind farms of various ages is also examined considering the climate change effects. The study incorporates EURO-CORDEX high-resolution climate projections, which are simulated using high-resolution regional climate models. A hybrid method that includes an analytical and simulation-based sequential Monte Carlo technique is implemented to assess the reliability performance of the microgrid. The assessments revealed that the impacts on microgrid reliability due to the climate change and aging effects were not uniform over the long run which further emphasizes the need of a quantitative assessment in order to expose true impacts of climate change on microgrid extending to the entire power system reliability.