Abstract
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures is associated with morbidity and mortality across the globe. Most of these studies assessing the effects of non-optimum temperatures on health and have been conducted in the developed world, whereas in India, the limited evidence on ambient temperature and health risks and has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves. Here we quantify short term association between all temperatures and mortality in urban Pune, India.
We applied a time series regression model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city from year January 2004 to December 2012. We estimated high and low temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We calculated temperature attributable mortality fractions for total heat and total cold.
The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% [95%CI 1.76–11∙43] of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold effect was greater 5.72% [95%CI 0∙70–10∙06] than heat 0∙84% [0∙35–1∙34]. The gender stratified analysis revealed that the highest burden among men both for heat and cold.
Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden. Our findings could benefit national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately due to climate change.
•This study highlights the relevance of ambient temperature as a risk factor for health in urban Pune city , India.•We show total number of attributable deaths due to cold is higher than heat.•Short-term exposure to heat and cold accounts for 6.5% of all-cause mortality during study period 2004–2012.•Our results also showed that extreme cold and extreme hot temperature was associated with the highest number of deaths.•Local public health authorities should consider the effects of extreme weather conditions in their mitigation strategies.