Abstract
This paper introduces a multi-stage dynamic transmission network expansion planning (MSDTNEP) model considering the N-1 reliability constraint. The integrated planning problem of N-1 security and transmission expansion planning is essential because a single line outage could be a triggering event to rolling blackouts. Two suggested scenarios were developed to obtain the optimal configuration of the Egyptian West Delta Network's realistic transmission (WDN) to meet the demand of the potential load growth and ensure the system reliability up to the year 2040. The size of a blackout, based on the amount of expected energy not supplied, was calculated to evaluate both scenarios. The load forecasting (up to 2040) was obtained based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system because it gives excellent results compared to conventional methods. The linear population size reduction-Success-History-based Differential Evolution with semi-parameter adaptation (LSHADE-SPA) hybrid-covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm (LSHADE-SPACMA)-is proposed to solve the problem. The semi-adaptive nature of LSHADE-SPACMA and the hybridization between LSHADE and CMA-ES are able to solve complex optimization problems. The performance of LSHADE-SPACMA in solving the problem is compared to other well-established methods using three testing systems to validate its superiority. Then, the MSDTNEP of the Egyptian West Delta Network is presented, and the numerical results of the two scenarios are compared to obtain an economic plan and avoid a partial or total blackout.