Abstract
Background: Obesity and its complications are associated with morbidity, mortality and high economic cost in Saudi Arabia. Estimating this impact at the population level and potential benefits to be gained from obesity reduction is vital to underpin policy initiatives to prevent disease risks.Methods: We combined data in an adapted version of the value of weight loss simulation model, to predict reductions in complication rates and cost savings achievable with 15% weight loss in Saudi Arabia over 10 years. To obtain model inputs, we conducted a systematic literature review (SLR) to identify data on the prevalence of obesity and its complications in Saudi Arabia, and surveyed specialist physicians and hospital administrators in public (governmental) and private healthcare sectors. We used combinations of age, sex, obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) rates in Saudi Arabia to sample a United Kingdom (UK) cohort, creating a synthetic Saudi Arabia cohort expected to be representative of the population.Results: The synthetic Saudi Arabia cohort reflected expected comorbidity prevalences in the population, with a higher estimated prevalence of T2D, hypertension and dyslipidaemia than the UK cohort in all age groups. For 100,000 people with body mass index 30-50 kg/m(2), it was estimated that 15% weight loss would lead to a 53.9% reduction in obstructive sleep apnoea, a 37.4% reduction in T2D and an 18.8% reduction in asthma. Estimated overall cost savings amounted to 1.026 billion Saudi Arabian Riyals; the largest contributors were reductions in T2D (30% of total cost savings for year 10), dyslipidaemia (26%) and hypertension (19%).Conclusions: Sustained weight loss could significantly alleviate the burden of obesity-related complications in Saudi Arabia. Adopting obesity reduction as a major policy aim, and ensuring access to support and treatment should form an important part of the transformation of the healthcare system, as set out under 'Vision 2030'.