Abstract
To estimate the parameters of the nonlinear output error system (nonlinear system), a variational Bayesian estimation method (VB method) is proposed based on the probabilistic graphical model (PGM). First, the related theories are introduced in this study such as the PGM and nonlinear systems. Then, the parameter estimation model of the nonlinear system is established. Finally, a VB method is proposed based on the PGM to estimate the parameters of the nonlinear system, which is tested and verified by numerical simulation experiments. It is found that the parameter estimation model of nonlinear system and the proposed method can estimate the parameters of relevant nonlinear system better, and the minimum error between the parameter estimated value and the actual value is only about 0.0001. It proves the feasibility of the VB method based on PGM in the identification of nonlinear systems. The results of this study provide an important reference for the control and identification of nonlinear systems.