Abstract
Human influence on the climate change is evident, and the current rate of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases will have widespread impacts on natural ecosystems. Moreover, as global mean temperatures continue to rise; it is pivotal to develop strategies to conserve species and habitats that are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the current study assessed the effect of changing climate on fruiting time and phenological plasticity in Berberis lycium Royle at Manoor Valley of Northern Pakistan. Further, these changes in fruiting behavior were correlated with temperature changes over the years. Five varying altitudinal sites of Manoor Valley were selected viz. Kot, Baila Manoor, Banrhi, Siri and Shamal Pata which range between 1807-2390 m.a.s.l. Observational data on phenological stage of B. lycium were recorded in May-October of 2015-17. Ten individuals plant were randomly selected at each altitudinal site and the data recorded. Notable traits were; cover, number of mature fruits and number of immature fruits. GPS was used to record elevation, aspect and position of the plant species and other environmental gradients were measured with the help of weather station. The results were validated using the ordination pattern. Significant changes were observed in all parameters of the species. The results indicated highest gain for bioclimatic variable (bio-9, mean temperature of the driest quarter). The data also indicates that B. lycium is highly sensitive to changes in altitude and temperature; it may be adapting to the gradual temperature change over long periods of time by altering the fruiting time or by adjusting to new altitudinal ranges. Furthermore, new phenology patterns and variations of fruiting period in B. lycium might be the indication of the raise in global temperature.