Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Joshua C. P. Osborne; Thomas R. Unnasch; Maria-Gloria Basanez; Katherine M. Gass; Kira A. Barbre; Elex Hill; Kimberly B. Johnson; Katie M. Donkers; Shreya Shirude; Chris A. Schmidt; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mohsen Afarideh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Vahid Alipour; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Benjamin F. Arnold; Marcel Ausloos; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Baernighausen; Mohsen Bayati; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mahdi Bohluli; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Zahid A. Butt; Felix Carvalho; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Natalie Maria Cormier; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Farah Daoud; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Kebede Deribe; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Anwar Faraj; Majid Fasihi Harandi; Yousef Fatahi; Valery L. Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Davide Guido; Yuming Guo; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Samer Hamidi; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Tarig B. Higazi; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Irena M. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Zubair Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Behzad Karami Matin; Salah Eddin Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Taras Kavetskyy; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Maryam Keramati; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Neda Kianipour; Kelemu Tilahun Kibret; Yun Jin Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Kris J. Krohn; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Van Charles Lansingh; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Shanshan Li; Joshua Longbottom; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Afshin Maleki; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ali Manafi; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Mohammad Miri; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Masoud Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F. Mosser; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Bogdan Oancea; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Adrian Pana; Hadi Pourjafar; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Serge Resnikoff; Melese Abate Reta; Aziz Rezapour; Enrico Rubagotti; Salvatore Rubino; Ehsan Sadeghi; Abedin Saghafipour; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Abdallah M. Samy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Monika Sawhney; Megan F. Schipp; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K. M. Shivakumar; Biagio Simonetti; Jasvinder A. Singh; Eirini Skiadaresi; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Leili Tapak; Robert L. Thompson; Alan J. Thomson; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Natalie V. S. Vinkeles Melchers; Francesco S. Violante; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; David M. Pigott

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

Back

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua C. P. Osborne, Thomas R. Unnasch, Maria-Gloria Basanez, Katherine M. Gass, Kira A. Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B. Johnson, Katie M. Donkers, Shreya Shirude, …

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Vol.15(7), pp.e0008824-e0008824

01/07/2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

PMID: 34319976

Abstract

Infectious Diseases

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Parasitology

Science & Technology

Tropical Medicine

Author summary As of 2018, it was unknown if onchocerciasis transmission occurred among approximately 2 400 implementation units (IUs; typically, second administrative-level units, such as districts) considered potentially endemic. These IUs have either never been surveyed for onchocerciasis or historical data are not sufficient to define contemporary endemicity status. Given the large number of IUs for which baseline data collection is likely required to achieve continental elimination, there is a need to prioritise areas for surveys to ensure that those suitable for endemic transmission, and therefore potentially eligible for mass drug administration, are able to initiate interventions as soon as possible. We used boosted regression trees to predict environmental suitability for onchocerciasis, with corresponding measures of uncertainty. We summarized the fine scale spatial predictions at the IU level by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify a threshold that maximized agreement with the occurrence locations to identify IUs that may warrant prioritisation for mapping surveys. This analysis suggests that approximately half of the IUs considered for surveys could be classified as environmentally suitable for onchocerciasis. In order to develop an elimination strategy, many national onchocerciasis elimination programmes (NOEPs) need a mechanism to synthesise historical data to define priority areas for surveys. Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 x 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0 center dot 71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50 center dot 2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 x 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Files and links (1)

url

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824View

Published (Version of record) Open

Metrics

1 Record Views

See more details

Details

Title: Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
Creators - without role: Elizabeth A. Cromwell - University of Washington
Joshua C. P. Osborne - University of Washington
Thomas R. Unnasch - University of South Florida
Maria-Gloria Basanez - Imperial College London
Katherine M. Gass - The Task Force for Global Health
Kira A. Barbre - The Task Force for Global Health
Elex Hill - University of Washington
Kimberly B. Johnson - University of Washington
Katie M. Donkers - University of Washington
Shreya Shirude - University of Washington
Chris A. Schmidt - University of Washington
Victor Adekanmbi - King's College London
Olatunji O. Adetokunboh - Stellenbosch University
Mohsen Afarideh - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Ehsan Ahmadpour - Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Muktar Beshir Ahmed - University of South Australia
Temesgen Yihunie Akalu - University of Gondar
Ziyad Al-Aly - Washington University in St. Louis
Fahad Mashhour Alanezi - Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
Turki M. Alanzi - Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
Vahid Alipour - Iran University of Medical Sciences
Catalina Liliana Andrei - Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy
Fereshteh Ansari - Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Mustafa Geleto Ansha - Debre Berhan University
Davood Anvari - Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah - Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology
Jalal Arabloo - Iran University of Medical Sciences
Benjamin F. Arnold - University of California, San Francisco
Marcel Ausloos - University of Leicester
Martin Amogre Ayanore - University of Health and Allied Sciences
Atif Amin Baig - Sultan Zainal Abidin University
Maciej Banach - Medical University of Lodz
Aleksandra Barac - University of Belgrade
Till Winfried Baernighausen - Heidelberg Univ, Heidelberg Inst Global Hlth HIGH, Heidelberg, Germany
Mohsen Bayati - Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
Krittika Bhattacharyya - National Institute of Biomedical Genomics
Zulfiqar A. Bhutta - University of Toronto
Sadia Bibi - University of Agriculture Faisalabad
Ali Bijani - Babol University of Medical Sciences
Somayeh Bohlouli - Islamic Azad University Kerman
Mahdi Bohluli - Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences
Oliver J. Brady - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi - University of Genoa
Zahid A. Butt - Shifa International Hospital
Felix Carvalho - Universidade do Porto
Souranshu Chatterjee - Medanta The Medicity
Vijay Kumar Chattu - University of Toronto
Soosanna Kumary Chattu - Texila American University
Natalie Maria Cormier - University of Washington
Saad M. A. Dahlawi - Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
Giovanni Damiani - University of Milan
Farah Daoud - University of Washington
Aso Mohammad Darwesh - University of Human Development
Ahmad Daryani - Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences
Kebede Deribe - Brighton and Sussex Medical School
Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Daniel Diaz - Autonomous University of Sinaloa
Hoa Thi Do - Institute of Health Economics and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
Maysaa El Sayed Zaki - Ministry of Higher Education
Maha El Tantawi - Alexandria University
Demelash Abewa Elemineh - Debre Markos University
Anwar Faraj - University of Human Development
Majid Fasihi Harandi - College Station Medical Center
Yousef Fatahi - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Valery L. Feigin - Auckland University of Technology
Eduarda Fernandes - Universidade do Porto
Nataliya A. Foigt - National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine
Masoud Foroutan - Faculty
Richard Charles Franklin - James Cook University
Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari - University of Sulaymaniyah
Davide Guido - Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta
Yuming Guo - Monash University
Arvin Haj-Mirzaian - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah - Univ Human Dev, Coll Law & Polit Sci, Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
Samer Hamidi - Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
Claudiu Herteliu - Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Hagos Degefa de Hidru - Adigrat University
Tarig B. Higazi - Ohio University
Naznin Hossain - Department of Pharmacology, Bangladesh Industrial Gases Limited, Tangail, Bangladesh
Mehdi Hosseinzadeh - Duy Tan University
Mowafa Househ - Hamad bin Khalifa University
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi - University of Ibadan
Milena D. Ilic - University of Kragujevac
Irena M. Ilic - University of Belgrade
Usman Iqbal - Taipei Medical University
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani - Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences
Ravi Prakash Jha - Maulana Azad Medical College
Farahnaz Joukar - Guilan University of Medical Sciences
Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak - Opole University
Zubair Kabir - University College Cork
Leila R. Kalankesh - Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Rohollah Kalhor - Qazvin University of Medical Sciences
Behzad Karami Matin - College Station Medical Center
Salah Eddin Karimi - Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Amir Kasaeian - Iran University of Medical Sciences
Taras Kavetskyy - John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin
Gbenga A. Kayode - Institute of Human Virology
Ali Kazemi Karyani - College Station Medical Center
Abraham Getachew Kelbore - Wolaita Sodo University
Maryam Keramati - Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Rovshan Khalilov - Baku State University
Ejaz Ahmad Khan - Biostat
Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan - Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University
Khaled Khatab - Sheffield Hallam University
Mona M. Khater - Cairo University
Neda Kianipour - College Station Medical Center
Kelemu Tilahun Kibret - Wollega University
Yun Jin Kim - Xiamen University Malaysia
Soewarta Kosen
Kris J. Krohn - University of Washington
Dian Kusuma - Supreme Council Of Health
Carlo La Vecchia - University of Milan
Van Charles Lansingh - HelpMeSee, New York, NY USA
Paul H. Lee - Supreme Council Of Health
Kate E. LeGrand - University of Washington
Shanshan Li - Monash University
Joshua Longbottom - University of Liverpool
Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek - Egypt Minist Hlth & Populat, Radiol Dept, Mansoura, Egypt
Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek - Minist Hlth & Populat, Ophthalmol Dept, Aswan, Egypt
Afshin Maleki - University of Tehran
Abdullah A. Mamun - University of Queensland
Ali Manafi - College Station Medical Center
Navid Manafi - Supreme Council Of Health
Mohammad Ali Mansournia - University of Tehran
Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo - Fed Inst Educ Sci & Technol Ceara, Campus Caucaia, Caucaia, Brazil
Mohsen Mazidi - Kings Coll London, Dept Twin Res & Genet Epidemiol, London, England
Colm McAlinden - Singleton Hosp, Dept Ophthalmol, Swansea, W Glam, Wales
Birhanu Geta Meharie - Wollo University
Walter Mendoza - United Nations
Endalkachew Worku Mengesha - Bahir Dar University
Desalegn Tadese Mengistu - Mekelle University
Seid Tiku Mereta - Jimma University
Tomislav Mestrovic - Dr Zora Profoz Polyclin, Clin Microbiol & Parasitol Unit, Zagreb, Croatia
Ted R. Miller - Pacific Inst Res & Evaluat, Calverton, MD USA
Mohammad Miri - College Station Medical Center
Masoud Moghadaszadeh - College Station Medical Center
Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani - Shahrekord University
Reza Mohammadpourhodki - College Station Medical Center
Shafiu Mohammed - Mécanique et Engrenage Moderne
Salahuddin Mohammed - University of Mississippi
Masoud Moradi - College Station Medical Center
Rahmatollah Moradzadeh - Arak University
Paula Moraga - King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Comp Elect & Math Sci & Engn Div, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Jonathan F. Mosser - University of Washington
Mehdi Naderi - College Station Medical Center
Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan - Initiat Financing Hlth & Human Dev, Res & Analyt Dept, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Gurudatta Naik - University of Alabama
Ionut Negoi - College Station Medical Center
Cuong Tat Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Huong Lan Thi Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Trang Huyen Nguyen - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất Thành
Rajan Nikbakhsh - Shahid Beheshti University
Bogdan Oancea - University of Bucharest
Tinuke O. Olagunju - McMaster University
Andrew T. Olagunju - McMaster University
Ahmed Omar Bali - Univ Human Dev, Diplomacy & Publ Relat Dept, Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
Obinna E. Onwujekwe - University of Nigeria
Adrian Pana - Bucharest Univ Econ Studies, Dept Stat & Econometr, Bucharest, Romania
Hadi Pourjafar - College Station Medical Center
Fakher Rahim - College Station Medical Center
Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman - College Station Medical Center
Priya Rathi - College Station Medical Center
Salman Rawaf - Imperial Coll London, Dept Primary Care & Publ Hlth, London, England
David Laith Rawaf - Imperial Coll London, WHO Collaborating Ctr Publ Hlth Educ & Training, London, England
Reza Rawassizadeh - Boston University
Serge Resnikoff - UNSW Sydney
Melese Abate Reta - Woldia University
Aziz Rezapour - College Station Medical Center
Enrico Rubagotti - Univ ICESI, Ctr Res Congenital Anomalies & Rare Dis, Cali, Colombia
Salvatore Rubino - University of Sassari
Ehsan Sadeghi - College Station Medical Center
Abedin Saghafipour - College Station Medical Center
S. Mohammad Sajadi - Cihan University-Erbil
Abdallah M. Samy - Ain Shams University
Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez - College Station Medical Center
Monika Sawhney - Univ N Carolina, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Charlotte, NC USA
Megan F. Schipp - University of Washington
Amira A. Shaheen - An Najah Natl Univ, Publ Hlth Div, Nablus, Palestine
Masood Ali Shaikh
Morteza Shamsizadeh - University of Borås
Kiomars Sharafi - College Station Medical Center
Aziz Sheikh - University of Edinburgh
B. Suresh Kumar Shetty - College Station Medical Center
Jae Il Shin - Yonsei University
K. M. Shivakumar - College Station Medical Center
Biagio Simonetti - University of Sannio
Jasvinder A. Singh - University of Alabama
Eirini Skiadaresi - Hywel Dda Univ Hlth Board, Dept Ophthalmol, Llanelli, Wales
Amin Soheili - Semnan University
Shahin Soltani - College Station Medical Center
Emma Elizabeth Spurlock - University of Washington
Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan - Ahmadu Bello University
Takahiro Tabuchi - Osaka Int Canc Inst, Canc Control Ctr, Osaka, Japan
Leili Tapak - Biostat
Robert L. Thompson - University of Washington
Alan J. Thomson - Adapt Knowledge Management, Dept Global Hlth Res, Victoria, BC, Canada
Eugenio Traini - Univ Utrecht, Inst Risk Assessment Sci IRAS, Utrecht, Netherlands
Bach Xuan Tran - College Station Medical Center
Irfan Ullah - Iqra Natl Univ, Dept Allied Hlth Sci, Peshawar, Pakistan
Saif Ullah - Univ Agr Faisalabad, Inst Soil & Environm Sci, Faisalabad, Pakistan
Chigozie Jesse Uneke - Ebonyi State University
Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan - College Station Medical Center
Olalekan A. Uthman - University of Warwick
Natalie V. S. Vinkeles Melchers - Erasmus MC
Francesco S. Violante - University of Bologna
Haileab Fekadu Wolde - University of Gondar
Tewodros Eshete Wonde - Debre Markos University
Tomohide Yamada - The University of Tokyo
Sanni Yaya - University of Ottawa
Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi - College Station Medical Center
Paul Yip - University of Hong Kong
Naohiro Yonemoto - Natl Ctr Neurol & Psychiat, Dept Neuropsychopharmacol, Kodaira, Tokyo, Japan
Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof - Cairo University
Chuanhua Yu - Wuhan University
Yong Yu - Hubei University
Hasan Yusefzadeh - Urmia University
Leila Zaki - Tarbiat Modares University
Sojib Bin Zaman - Monash University
Maryam Zamanian - Arak University
Zhi-Jiang Zhang - Wuhan University
Yunquan Zhang - Wuhan University
Arash Ziapour - College Station Medical Center
Simon I. Hay - University of Washington
David M. Pigott - University of Washington
Publication Details: PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Vol.15(7), pp.e0008824-e0008824
Publisher: Public Library Science
Number of pages: 23
Grant note: UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC) Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium MR/R015600/1 / UK Medical Research Council (MRC); UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC) OPP1132415; OPP1184344; OPP1186851 / Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; CGIAR European Union; European Commission
Identifiers: 9915343408331
Academic Unit: Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University; King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; Alfaisal University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article