Abstract
Background Assess current and future pediatric emergency physician supply and need at 26 pediatric emergency departments (EDs) in 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia from 2021 through 2030. Methods For 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia, data were obtained on the size of the pediatric population (children <14 years old), the expected number of pediatric ED visits, and the number of pediatric emergency, fellowship-trained consultant physicians for the years 2015 through 2019. Time series linear regression modeling was used to estimate annual pediatric population sizes and pediatric ED visits for 2021-2030, based on 2015-2019 data trends. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021-2030 based on these trends was calculated according to a consensus method adopted by the Saudi Ministry of Health. Results For the 10 Saudi Arabian administrative regions, the pediatric population is estimated to be 8,061,409 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7,815,767 to 8,307,052) in 2021 and 9,764,591 (95% CI: 9,046,490 to 10,500,000) for 2030, and estimated the number of pediatric ED visits is 3,442,259 (95% CI: 3,013,697 to 3,870,822) for 2021 and 4,610,072 (95% CI: 3,026,986 to 6,193,158) for 2030. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021 is 1158 (95% CI: 1,002 to 1,314) and for 2030 is 1500 (95% CI: 985 to 2016), whereas deficit in number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians available is 1107 (95% CI: 944 to 1,270) for 2021 and 1405 (95% CI: 869 to 1,941) for 2030. Conclusions The study projections demonstrate a disparity between current and projected supply and demand of pediatric emergency physicians within Saudi Arabia.