Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher E. Troeger; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Brigette F. Blacker; Molly H. Biehl; Samuel B. Albertson; Stephanie R. M. Zimsen; Puja C. Rao; Degu Abate; Alireza Ahmadi; Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Suleman Atique; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Samah Awad; Ashish Awasthi; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Quique Bassat; Neeraj Bedi; Derrick A. Bennett; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Josip Car; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Aniruddha Deshpande; Shirin Djalalinia; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Aman Yesuf Endries; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nancy Fullman; William M. Gardner; Birhanu Geta; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C. Goulart; Yuming Guo; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Chi Linh Hoang; Mihaela Hostiuc; Zakir Hussain; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Spencer L. James; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Andre Karch; Amir Kasaeian; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Adane Teshome Kefale; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Sonali Kochhar; Soewarta Kosen; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Rakesh Lodha; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Marek Majdan; Abdullah A. Mamun; H. Manguerra; Addisu Melese; Ziad A. Memish; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E. Moore; Jonathan F. Mosser; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Srinivas Murthy; Ghulam Mustafa; Javad Nazari; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; P. A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Maarten J. Postma; Mostafa Qorbani; Reginald Quansah; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Luca Ronfani; Katherine Rosettie; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Saeed Safari; Zikria Saleem; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Monika Sawhney; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; David L. Smith; Joan B. Soriano; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Teklay G. E. Teklu; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Belay Tessema; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Rachel L. Updike; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yousef Veisani; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Marcia Weaver; Kirsten E. Wiens; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Zoubida Zaidi; Heather J. Zar; Afshin Zarghi; Stephen S. Lim; Theo Vos; Ali H. Mokdad; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Simon I. Hay; Robert C. Reiner; GBD 2017 Diarrhoeal Dis

doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30401-3

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Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher E. Troeger, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Brigette F. Blacker, Molly H. Biehl, Samuel B. Albertson, Stephanie R. M. Zimsen, Puja C. Rao, Degu Abate, Alireza Ahmadi, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed, …

The Lancet infectious diseases, Vol.20(1), pp.37-59

01/01/2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30401-3

PMID: 31678029

Abstract

Infectious Diseases

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Science & Technology

Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Title: Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Creators - without role: Christopher E. Troeger - University of Washington
Ibrahim A. Khalil - University of Washington
Brigette F. Blacker - University of Washington
Molly H. Biehl - University of Washington
Samuel B. Albertson - University of Washington
Stephanie R. M. Zimsen - University of Washington
Puja C. Rao - University of Washington
Degu Abate - Haramaya University
Alireza Ahmadi - College Station Medical Center
Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed - Univ Mohammed 5, Dept Biol, Rabat, Morocco
Chalachew Genet Akal - Bahir Dar University
Fares Alahdab - Evidence
Noore Alam - Queensland Hlth, Prevent Div, Herston, Qld, Australia
Kefyalew Addis Alene - University of Gondar
Vahid Alipour - College Station Medical Center
Syed Mohamed Aljunid - Kuwait University
Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi - King Abdulaziz University
Nelson Alvis-Guzman - University of Cartagena
Saeed Amini - Arak University
Nahla Hamed Anber - Mansoura University
Mina Anjomshoa - College Station Medical Center
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio - University of the Philippines Manila
Jalal Arabloo - College Station Medical Center
Olatunde Aremu - Birmingham City University
Hagos Tasew Atalay - Aksum University
Suleman Atique - University of Lahore
Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho - Benin Clin Res Inst, Abomey Calavi, Benin
Samah Awad - Jordan Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Pediat & Neonatol, Ramtha, Jordan
Ashish Awasthi - Inst Publ Hlth, Gandhinagar, India
Alaa Badawi - Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Toronto, ON, Canada
Kalpana Balakrishnan - College Station Medical Center
Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub - Alexandria University
Aleksandra Barac - Clin Ctr Serbia, Clin Infect & Trop Dis, Belgrade, Serbia
Quique Bassat - Universitat de Barcelona
Neeraj Bedi - College Station Medical Center
Derrick A. Bennett - University of Oxford
Krittika Bhattacharyya - Natl Inst Biomed Genom, Dept Stat & Computat Genom, Kalyani, W Bengal, India
Zulfiqar A. Bhutta - University of Toronto
Ali Bijani - College Station Medical Center
Josip Car - Nanyang Technol Univ, Ctr Populat Hlth Sci, Singapore, Singapore
Felix Carvalho - Universidade do Porto
Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela - Natl Inst Hlth, Colombian Natl Hlth Observ, Bogota, Colombia
Devasahayam J. Christopher - College Station Medical Center
Lalit Dandona - University of Washington
Rakhi Dandona - University of Washington
Ahmad Daryani - College Station Medical Center
Feleke Mekonnen Demeke - Bahir Dar University
Aniruddha Deshpande - University of Washington
Shirin Djalalinia - College Station Medical Center
Manisha Dubey - World Food Programme
Eleonora Dubljanin - University of Belgrade
Eyasu Ejeta Duken - Wollega University
Maysaa El Sayed Zaki - Mansoura University
Aman Yesuf Endries - Millennium Engineering and Integration
Eduarda Fernandes - Universidade do Porto
Florian Fischer - Bielefeld University
Nancy Fullman - University of Washington
William M. Gardner - University of Washington
Birhanu Geta - Wollo University
Keyghobad Ghadiri - College Station Medical Center
Giuseppe Gorini - Florence
Alessandra C. Goulart - Univ Sao Paulo, Ctr Clin & Epidemiol Res, Univ Hosp, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Yuming Guo - Monash University
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu - Mekelle University
Arvin Haj-Mirzaian - University of Tehran
Arya Haj-Mirzaian - University of Tehran
Samer Hamidi - Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
Hamid Yimam Hassen - Mizan Tepi University
Chi Linh Hoang - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất Thành
Mihaela Hostiuc - College Station Medical Center
Zakir Hussain - Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan, Prov TB Control Program, Dept Hlth, Gilgit, Pakistan
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani - University of Tehran
Spencer L. James - University of Washington
Ravi Prakash Jha - Banaras Hindu University
Jost B. Jonas - Heidelberg University
Andre Karch - University of Münster
Amir Kasaeian - University of Tehran
Tesfaye Dessale Kassa - Mekelle University
Nicholas J. Kassebaum - University of Washington
Adane Teshome Kefale - Mizan Tepi University
Yousef Saleh Khader - College Station Medical Center
Ejaz Ahmad Khan - Biostat
Md Nuruzzaman Khan - Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University
Young-Ho Khang - Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Hlth Policy & Management, Inst Hlth Policy & Management, Seoul, South Korea
Abdullah T. Khoja - Johns Hopkins University
Ruth W. Kimokoti - Simmons Coll, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Adnan Kisa - Kristiania Univ Coll, Dept Hlth Management & Hlth Econ, Oslo, Norway
Sezer Kisa - Oslo Metropolitan Univ, Nursing & Hlth Promot, Oslo, Norway
Niranjan Kissoon - University of British Columbia
Sonali Kochhar - University of Washington
Soewarta Kosen
Ai Koyanagi - Catalan Inst Res & Adv Studies, Barcelona, Spain
Barthelemy Kuate Defo - Univ Montreal, Dept Demog, Montreal, PQ, Canada
G. Anil Kumar
Dharmesh Kumar Lal - Publ Hlth Fdn India, Gurugram, India
Cheru Tesema Leshargie - Debre Markos University
Shanshan Li - Monash University
Rakesh Lodha - College Station Medical Center
Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan - University of the Philippines Manila
Marek Majdan - Trnava Univ, Dept Publ Hlth, Trnava, Slovakia
Abdullah A. Mamun - University of Queensland
H. Manguerra - University of Washington
Addisu Melese - Bahir Dar University
Ziad A. Memish - Minist Hlth, Res Dept, Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz Hosp, Nouakchott, Mauritania
Desalegn Tadese Mengistu - Mekelle University
Tuomo J. Meretoja - Helsinki Univ Hosp, Breast Surg Unit, Helsinki, Finland
Tomislav Mestrovic - Dr Zora Profozic Polyclin, Clin Microbiol & Parasitol Unit, Zagreb, Croatia
Bartosz Miazgowski - College Station Medical Center
Erkin M. Mirrakhimov - College Station Medical Center
Babak Moazen - Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Mannheim, Germany
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad - Salahaddin Univ, Dept Biol, Erbil, Iraq
Shafiu Mohammed - Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Mannheim, Germany
Lorenzo Monasta - Burlo Garofolo Inst Maternal & Child Hlth, Clin Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Res Unit, Trieste, Italy
Catrin E. Moore - University of Oxford
Jonathan F. Mosser - University of Washington
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi - University of Tehran
Srinivas Murthy - University of British Columbia
Ghulam Mustafa - College Station Medical Center
Javad Nazari - Arak University
Cuong Tat Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Long Hoang Nguyen - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất Thành
Muhammad Imran Nisar - Aga Khan Univ, Dept Pediat & Child Hlth, Karachi, Pakistan
Molly R. Nixon - University of Washington
Felix Akpojene Ogbo - Western Sydney University
Anselm Okoro - Soc Family Hlth Nigeria, Dept Res Measurement & Results, Abuja, Nigeria
Andrew T. Olagunju - McMaster University
Tinuke O. Olagunju - McMaster University
P. A. Mahesh - JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research
Smita Pakhale - College Station Medical Center
Maarten J. Postma - University of Groningen
Mostafa Qorbani - College Station Medical Center
Reginald Quansah - University of Ghana
Alireza Rafiei - College Station Medical Center
Fakher Rahim - University of Tehran
Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar - University of Tehran
Rajesh Kumar Rai - Soc Hlth & Demog Surveillance, Suri, India
Mohammad Sadegh Rezai - College Station Medical Center
Aziz Rezapour - College Station Medical Center
Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Ctr Hlth Syst Res, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Luca Ronfani - Burlo Garofolo Inst Maternal & Child Hlth, Clin Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Res Unit, Trieste, Italy
Katherine Rosettie - University of Washington
Dietrich Rothenbacher - College Station Medical Center
Saeed Safari - Shahid Beheshti University
Zikria Saleem - Rashid Latif Coll Pharm, Lahore, Pakistan
Evanson Zondani Sambala - Cochrane
Abdallah M. Samy - Ain Shams University
Milena M. Santric Milicevic - University of Belgrade
Benn Sartorius - University of Washington
Monika Sawhney - Univ N Carolina, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Charlotte, NC USA
Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi - College Station Medical Center
Masood Ali Shaikh
Aziz Sheikh - Harvard University
Mika Shigematsu - Natl Inst Infect Dis, Tokyo, Japan
David L. Smith - University of Washington
Joan B. Soriano - Autonomous University of Madrid
Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy - College Station Medical Center
Jeffrey D. Stanaway - University of Washington
Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan - Ahmadu Bello University
Teklay G. E. Teklu - University of Gondar
Mohamad-Hani Temsah - Alfaisal University
Belay Tessema - University of Gondar
Bach Xuan Tran - College Station Medical Center
Khanh Bao Tran - University of Auckland
Irfan Ullah - Gomal University
Rachel L. Updike - University of Washington
Tommi Juhani Vasankari - UKK Inst, Tampere, Finland
Yousef Veisani - Ilam University
Fiseha Wadilo Wada - Wolaita Sodo University
Yasir Waheed - College Station Medical Center
Marcia Weaver - University of Washington
Kirsten E. Wiens - University of Washington
Charles Shey Wiysonge - South African Med Res Council, Cochrane South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
Ebrahim M. Yimer - Mekelle University
Naohiro Yonemoto - Natl Ctr Neurol & Psychiat, Dept Psychopharmacol, Tokyo, Japan
Zoubida Zaidi - Univ Hosp Setif, Dept Epidemiol, Setif, Algeria
Heather J. Zar - University of Cape Town
Afshin Zarghi - Shahid Beheshti University
Stephen S. Lim - University of Washington
Theo Vos - University of Washington
Ali H. Mokdad - University of Washington
Christopher J. L. Murray - University of Washington
Hmwe Hmwe Kyu - University of Washington
Simon I. Hay - University of Washington
Robert C. Reiner - University of Washington
GBD 2017 Diarrhoeal Dis
Publication Details: The Lancet infectious diseases, Vol.20(1), pp.37-59
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 23
Grant note: Department of Science and Technology, Government of India through the INSPIRE faculty scheme; Department of Science & Technology (India); Department of Science & Technology (DOST), Philippines III45005 / Project of Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the Republic of Serbia UID/QUI/50006/2019; UID/MULTI/04378/2019 / Foundation for Science and Technology/Minister of Science, Technology, and Higher Education 175087 / Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia Health Data Research UK Public Health Agency of Canada Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program
Identifiers: 9913746508331
Academic Unit: Alfaisal University; Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU); King Saud University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article