Abstract
The results of dynamical downscaling of general circulation model INMCM4 data are described. INMCM4 model provided data on the atmosphere with 2 x 1.5 degrees spatial resolution and on the ocean with 1 x 0.5 degrees resolution. Two regional climate models (RegCM4 and HadRM3P) were used to downscale input data for 1971 - 2000 and 2071 - 2100 periods. Enhanced spatial resolution 25 x 25 km was obtained by downscaling procedure. Main parameters of climate change are presented for the Black Sea and Caspian region at the end of the 21st century assuming intense anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in accordance with RCP8.5 scenario. Climate change in the region, according to the models, is characterized by significant temperature increase in summer (similar to 5 degrees C) and relatively moderate increase in winter (2 - 3 degrees C). The amount of precipitation is also considerably decreasing (more then by 40%) in the area that corresponds maximum warming (Carpathians and Anatolian peninsula) in spring and summer seasons. In both models total precipitation decrease occurs mainly due to decrease of convective precipitation frequency. Generally, the main reasons for predicted changes in the future climate are the thermodynamic phenomena connected with decreasing relative humidity as well as some circulation features caused by enhanced anti-cyclonic circulation in the region. Obtained numerical estimations of regional climate change are in a good agreement with data from previous studies.