Abstract
The purpose of this study was to explore the predominant determinants of shower end use consumption and to find an overarching research design for building a residential water end use demand forecasting model using aligned socio-demographic and natural science data sets collected from 200 households fitted with smart water meters in South-east Queensland, Australia. ANOVA as well as multiple regression analysis statistical techniques were utilised to reveal the determinants (e.g. household makeup, shower fixture efficiency, income, education, etc.) of household shower consumption. Results of a series of one-way independent ANOVA extended into linear multiple regression models revealed that females, children in general and teenagers in particular, and the showerhead efficiency level were statistically significant determinants of shower end use consumption. Eight-way independent factorial ANOVA extended into a three-tier hierarchical linear multiple regression model, was used to create a shower end use forecasting model, and indicated that household size and makeup, as well as the showerhead efficiency rating, are the most significant predictors of shower usage. The generated multiple regression model was deemed reliable, explaining 90.2% of the variation in household shower end use consumption. The paper concludes with a discussion on the significant shower end use determinants and how this statistical approach will be followed to predict other residential end uses, and overall household consumption. Moreover, the implications of the research to urban water conservation strategies and policy design, is discussed, along with future research directions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.