Abstract
The dynamic nature of the building stock involving construction, renovation and demolition results in inefficient energy demand creating a huge potential for energy savings. Policy makers have two major tools to reduce energy consumption; by building more efficient structures and through renovating older ones. The reliability of whether an energy efficiency policy can reduce energy consumption in the building sector can be assessed through trial and error in the real world or through computer simulations, which can imitate the dynamics of the real world. This study examines impacts of energy efficiency policies by evaluating the temporal evolution of building sector for the state of Qatar, by using the system dynamic methodology. Qatar has seen a rapid growth in its building sector recently, with the stock growing to twice its size in the past fifteen years. To study the impact of such an increase in the building stock, a system dynamics model is developed with the help of Ventity (TM) modeling tool, to forecast the combined energy consumption for the 28 building types present in the country. Furthermore, seven energy efficiency policy measures based on renovations and new construction are assessed for these building types to see the impacts on electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. Results show that constructing energy efficient buildings and renovating older ones every 10 years can save more than 4700 GWh of electricity and 2.3 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by the year 2050. More captivating results show that in the long run, constructing new buildings efficiently can save more than twice compared to the most effective renovating policy, ergo demonstrating the need for developing countries to prioritize building efficient stocks rather than renovating older ones. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.