Abstract
This simulation study aimed to predict potential breeding program of increasing milk and meat production of Hejaz goat in subtropical areas. Computer ZPLAN(+) software was used to simulated breeding program of five-year duration. ZPLAN(+) was provided by a wide range of performance, phenotypic and genetic parameters of studied selection criteria and breeding objectives; milk and meat production. Furthermore, a close breeding scheme was assumed of ten selection groups where nucleus buck's genetic material was disseminated into multiplier and commercial unites. The result of simulated scenario was increasing milk and meat productivity by 0.199 and 0.107 kg, respectively, under assumed subtropical conditions where Hejaz goats habitat. Therefore, such breeding program was found sustainable in short term in which genetic gain showed reasonable increment regardless the trait's genetic makeup or heritability values. On the other hand, it has been found that genetic gain was sensitive to changes in heritability values. The change of heritability values varied from 0.10 to 0.40 for total milk and meat production. The changes in the magnitudes of the genetic gain stress the importance of using more reliable estimates of these traits in the breeding program. Further work on application of long-term breeding program is needed and updated estimates of genetic and economic values for Hejaz goat breed is also needed.