Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Marissa B. Reitsma; Nancy Fullman; Marie Ng; Joseph S. Salama; Amanuel Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Semaw Ferede Abera; Biju Abraham; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Ziyad Al-Aly; Alicia V. Aleman; Raghib Ali; Ala'a Al Alkerwi; Peter Allebeck; Rajaa Mohammad Al-Raddadi; Azmeraw T. Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; Walid Ammar; Stephen Marc Amrock; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Hamid Asayesh; Niguse Tadela Atnafu; Peter Azzopardi; Amitava Banerjee; Aleksandra Barac; Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez; Ana Cristina Basto-Abreu; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Brent Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Isabela M. Bensenor; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Neeraj Bhala; Stan Biryukov; Kaylin Bolt; Hermann Brenner; Zahid Butt; Fiorella Cavalleri; Kelly Cercy; Honglei Chen; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Valentina Colistro; Mercedes Colomar; Leslie Cornaby; Xiaochen Dai; Solomon Abrha Damtew; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Emily Dansereau; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Amare Deribew; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Balem Demtsu Dimtsu; Kerrie E. Doyle; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Kara Estep; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Farshad Farzadfar; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Florian Fischer; Joseph Friedman; Tsegaye Tewelde Ghiwot; Seana L. Gall; Wayne Gao; Richard F. Gillum; Audra L. Gold; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Carolyn C. Gotay; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Graeme Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Simon I. Hay; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Abdullatif Husseini; Bogdan Vasile Ileanu; Farhad Islami; Guohong Jiang; Ying Jiang; Jost B. Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Ritul Kamal; Amir Kasaeian; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef S. Khader; Ibrahim Khalil; Young-Ho Khang; Sahil Khera; Jagdish Khubchandani; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Luke D. Knibbs; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Dhaval Kolte; Jacek Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Georgios A. Kotsakis; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kristopher J. Krohn; Hans Krueger; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Chanda Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Janet L. Leasher; Alexander Lee; Mall Leinsalu; Tong Li; Shai Linn; Patrick Liu; Shiwei Liu; Loon-Tzian Lo; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Ma; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Jose Martinez-Raga; Alemayehu Berhane Mekonnen; Walter Mendoza; Ted R. Miller; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Lidia Morawska; Kamarul Imran Musa; Gabriele Nagel; Sudan Prasad Neupane; Quyen Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; In-Hwan Oh; Abayomi Samuel Oyekale; P. A. Mahesh; Adrian Pana; Eun-Kee Park; Snehal T. Patil; George C. Patton; Joao Pedro; Mostafa Qorbani; Anwar Rafay; Mahfuzar Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Amany H. Refaat; Nickolas Reinig; Hirbo Shore Roba; Alina Rodriguez; Yesenia Roman; Gregory Roth; Ambuj Roy; Rajesh Sagar; Joshua Salomon; Juan Sanabria; Itamar de Souza Santos; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Susan Sawyer; Mete Saylan; Michael P. Schaub; Neil Schluger; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Berrin Serdar; Masood Ali Shaikh; Jun She; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Kawkab Shishani; Ivy Shiue; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Jonathan I. Silverberg; Jasvinder Singh; Virendra Singh; Erica Leigh Slepak; Samir Soneji; Joan B. Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Dan J. Stein; Saverio Stranges; Michelle L. Subart; Soumya Swaminathan; Cassandra E. I. Szoeke; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Roman Topor-Madry; Bach Tran; Nikolaos Tsilimparis; Hayley Tymeson; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Rachel Updike; Olalekan A. Uthman; Francesco Saverio Violante; Sergey K. Vladimirov; Vasiliy Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Elisabete Weiderpass; Chi-Pan Wen; Andrea Werdecker; Shelley Wilson; Mamo Wubshet; Lin Xiao; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Penpeng Ye; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Anthony Lin Zhang; Ben Zipkin; Christopher J. L. Murray; Mohammad H. Forouzanfar; Emmanuela Gakidou; GBD 2015 Tobacco Collaborators

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X

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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Marissa B. Reitsma, Nancy Fullman, Marie Ng, Joseph S. Salama, Amanuel Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Semaw Ferede Abera, Biju Abraham, Gebre Yitayih Abyu, …

The Lancet (British edition), Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906

13/05/2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X

PMCID: PMC5439023

PMID: 28390697

Abstract

General & Internal Medicine

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Medicine, General & Internal

Science & Technology

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.

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Title: Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Creators - without role: Marissa B. Reitsma - University of Washington
Nancy Fullman - University of Washington
Marie Ng - University of Washington
Joseph S. Salama - University of Washington
Amanuel Abajobir - University of Queensland
Kalkidan Hassen Abate - Jimma University
Cristiana Abbafati - Univ Roma La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
Semaw Ferede Abera - University of Hohenheim
Biju Abraham - NMSM Govt Coll Kalpetta, Kalpetta, Kerala, India
Gebre Yitayih Abyu - Mekelle University
Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi - University of Ibadan
Ziyad Al-Aly - Washington Univ, St Louis, MO USA
Alicia V. Aleman - Univ Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay
Raghib Ali - University of Oxford
Ala'a Al Alkerwi - Luxembourg Inst Hlth LIH, Strassen, Luxembourg
Peter Allebeck - Karolinska Institutet
Rajaa Mohammad Al-Raddadi - Minist Hlth, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Azmeraw T. Amare - Marshall University
Alemayehu Amberbir - Dignitas Int, Zomba, Malawi
Walid Ammar - Minist Publ Hlth, Beirut, Lebanon
Stephen Marc Amrock - University of Portland
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio - University of the Philippines Manila
Hamid Asayesh - College Station Medical Center
Niguse Tadela Atnafu - Mizan Tepi University
Peter Azzopardi - University of Melbourne
Amitava Banerjee - Bucharest Univ Econ Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Aleksandra Barac - University of Belgrade
Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez - University of Adelaide
Ana Cristina Basto-Abreu - Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada
Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi - Drew University
Neeraj Bedi - College Station Medical Center
Brent Bell - University of Washington
Aminu K. Bello - University of Alberta
Isabela M. Bensenor - Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Addisu Shunu Beyene - Haramaya University
Neeraj Bhala - Queen Elizabeth Hosp Birmingham, Birmingham, W Midlands, England
Stan Biryukov - University of Washington
Kaylin Bolt - University of Washington
Hermann Brenner - Heidelberg
Zahid Butt - Al Shifa Trust Eye Hosp, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Fiorella Cavalleri - Univ Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay
Kelly Cercy - University of Washington
Honglei Chen - Michigan State University
Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher - College Station Medical Center
Liliana G. Ciobanu - New York Medical College
Valentina Colistro - Univ Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay
Mercedes Colomar - UNICEM, Montevideo, Uruguay
Leslie Cornaby - University of Washington
Xiaochen Dai - University of Washington
Solomon Abrha Damtew - Wolaita Sodo University
Lalit Dandona - University of Washington
Rakhi Dandona - University of Washington
Emily Dansereau - University of Washington
Kairat Davletov - Alma
Anand Dayama - College Station Medical Center
Tizta Tilahun Degfie - African Populat & Hlth Res Ctr, Nairobi, Kenya
Amare Deribew - University of Oxford
Samath D. Dharmaratne - Dignitas Int, Zomba, Malawi
Balem Demtsu Dimtsu - Mekelle University
Kerrie E. Doyle - RMIT University
Aman Yesuf Endries - University of Peradeniya
Sergey Petrovich Ermakov - Russian Acad Sci, Moscow, Russia
Kara Estep - University of Washington
Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon - University of the Philippines Manila
Farshad Farzadfar - University of Tehran
Valery L. Feigin - Auckland University of Technology
Andrea B. Feigl - Harvard University
Florian Fischer - Univ Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
Joseph Friedman - University of Washington
Tsegaye Tewelde Ghiwot - Jimma University
Seana L. Gall - University of Tasmania
Wayne Gao - University of Taipei
Richard F. Gillum - Howard University
Audra L. Gold - University of Washington
Sameer Vali Gopalani - Govt Federated States Micronesia, Palikir, Micronesia
Carolyn C. Gotay - University of British Columbia
Rahul Gupta - West Virginia Dept Hlth Human Resources, Bur Publ Hlth, Charleston, WV USA
Rajeev Gupta - Eternal Heart Care Ctr & Res Inst, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India
Vipin Gupta - University of Delhi
Randah Ribhi Hamadeh - Arabian Gulf University
Graeme Hankey - University of Western Australia
Hilda L. Harb - Minist Publ Hlth, Beirut, Lebanon
Simon I. Hay - University of Washington
Masako Horino - Nevada Div Publ & Behav Hlth, Carson City, NV USA
Nobuyuki Horita - Yokohama City University
H. Dean Hosgood - Albert Einstein College of Medicine
Abdullatif Husseini - Birzeit University
Bogdan Vasile Ileanu - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Farhad Islami - Amer Canc Soc, Atlanta, GA USA
Guohong Jiang - Tianjin Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Tianjin, Peoples R China
Ying Jiang - Univ Occupat & Environm Hlth, Inst Ind Ecol Sci, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, Japan
Jost B. Jonas - University of Mannheim
Zubair Kabir - Univ Coll Cork, Cork, Ireland
Ritul Kamal - Indian Inst Toxicol Res, CSIR, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India
Amir Kasaeian - University of Tehran
Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran - Indian Inst Toxicol Res, CSIR, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India
Yousef S. Khader - Jordan Univ Sci & Technol, Irbid, Jordan
Ibrahim Khalil - University of Washington
Young-Ho Khang - University of Seoul
Sahil Khera - Northeastern University
Jagdish Khubchandani - Ball State University
Daniel Kim - Univ Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Yun Jin Kim - Southern Univ Coll, Skudai, Malaysia
Ruth W. Kimokoti - Simmons Coll, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Yohannes Kinfu - University of Canberra
Luke D. Knibbs - University of Queensland
Yoshihiro Kokubo - Natl Cerebral & Cardiovasc Ctr, Suita, Osaka, Japan
Dhaval Kolte - Brown University
Jacek Kopec - University of British Columbia
Soewarta Kosen - NIHRD, Hlth Policy & Humanities, Jakarta, Indonesia
Georgios A. Kotsakis - University of Washington
Parvaiz A. Koul - College Station Medical Center
Ai Koyanagi - Parc Sanitari St Joan de Deu CIBERSAM, Barcelona, Spain
Kristopher J. Krohn - University of Washington
Hans Krueger - University of British Columbia
Barthelemy Kuate Defo - BRAC
Burcu Kucuk Bicer - Hacettepe University
Chanda Kulkarni - College Station Medical Center
G. Anil Kumar - Publ Hlth Fdn India, Guragon, India
Janet L. Leasher - Nova Southeastern University
Alexander Lee - University of Washington
Mall Leinsalu - Natl Inst Hlth Dev, Tallinn, Estonia
Tong Li - Natl Ctr Chron & Noncommunicable Dis Control & Pr, Beijing, Peoples R China
Shai Linn - University of Haifa
Patrick Liu - University of Washington
Shiwei Liu - Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China
Loon-Tzian Lo
Alan D. Lopez - Product Innovation and Engineering (United States, Saint James) - LLC
Stefan Ma - Minist Hlth Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek - College Station Medical Center
Azeem Majeed - Imperial Coll London, London, England
Reza Malekzadeh - University of Tehran
Deborah Carvalho Malta - Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Wondimu Ayele Manamo - Univ Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Jose Martinez-Raga - Hosp Univ Doctor Peset, Valencia, Spain
Alemayehu Berhane Mekonnen - University of Gondar
Walter Mendoza - United Nations
Ted R. Miller - Pacific Inst Res & Evaluat, Calverton, MD USA
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad - Univ Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq
Lidia Morawska - Queensland University of Technology
Kamarul Imran Musa - Univ Sci Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
Gabriele Nagel - University of Ulm
Sudan Prasad Neupane - University of Oslo
Quyen Nguyen - Duy Tan University
Grant Nguyen - University of Washington
In-Hwan Oh - Kyung Hee University
Abayomi Samuel Oyekale - North West Univ, Mafikeng, South Africa
P. A. Mahesh
Adrian Pana - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Eun-Kee Park - Kosin University
Snehal T. Patil - Supreme Council Of Health
George C. Patton - University of Melbourne
Joao Pedro - Bucharest Univ Econ Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Mostafa Qorbani - College Station Medical Center
Anwar Rafay - Contech
Mahfuzar Rahman - College Station Medical Center
Rajesh Kumar Rai - Soc Hlth & Demog Surveillance, Suri, India
Usha Ram - Int Inst Populat Sci, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat - Yonsei University
Amany H. Refaat - Walden University
Nickolas Reinig - University of Washington
Hirbo Shore Roba - Haramaya University
Alina Rodriguez - Imperial Coll London, London, England
Yesenia Roman - University of Washington
Gregory Roth - University of Washington
Ambuj Roy - College Station Medical Center
Rajesh Sagar - College Station Medical Center
Joshua Salomon - Harvard University
Juan Sanabria - Marshall University
Itamar de Souza Santos - Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Benn Sartorius - University of KwaZulu-Natal
Maheswar Satpathy - College Station Medical Center
Monika Sawhney - Natl Cerebral & Cardiovasc Ctr, Suita, Osaka, Japan
Susan Sawyer - University of Melbourne
Mete Saylan - Bayer Turkey, Istanbul, Turkey
Michael P. Schaub - University of Zurich
Neil Schluger - World Lung Assoc, New York, NY USA
Aletta Elisabeth Schutte - North West Univ, Potchefstroom, South Africa
Sadaf G. Sepanlou - University of Tehran
Berrin Serdar - Univ Colorado, Aurora, CO USA
Masood Ali Shaikh - Independent Consultant, Karachi, Pakistan
Jun She - Fudan University
Min-Jeong Shin - University of Seoul
Rahman Shiri - University of Helsinki
Kawkab Shishani - Washington State University Spokane
Ivy Shiue - Newcastle University
Inga Dora Sigfusdottir - Reykjavík University
Jonathan I. Silverberg - Northwestern University
Jasvinder Singh - University of Alabama
Virendra Singh - Asthma Bhawan, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India
Erica Leigh Slepak - University of Washington
Samir Soneji - Dartmouth Coll, Hanover, NH USA
Joan B. Soriano - Univ Autonoma Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Sergey Soshnikov - Minist Hlth Russian Federat, Moscow, Russia
Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy - University of Kuala Lumpur
Dan J. Stein - University of Cape Town
Saverio Stranges - University of Warwick
Michelle L. Subart - University of Washington
Soumya Swaminathan - College Station Medical Center
Cassandra E. I. Szoeke - University of Melbourne
Worku Mekonnen Tefera - University of Adelaide
Roman Topor-Madry - Jagiellonian University
Bach Tran - College Station Medical Center
Nikolaos Tsilimparis - Univ Heart Ctr Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Hayley Tymeson - University of Washington
Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja - UCL, London, England
Rachel Updike - University of Washington
Olalekan A. Uthman - University of Warwick
Francesco Saverio Violante - University of Bologna
Sergey K. Vladimirov - Fed Res Inst Hlth Org & Informat, Moscow, Russia
Vasiliy Vlassov - Supreme Council Of Health
Stein Emil Vollset - University of Washington
Theo Vos - University of Washington
Elisabete Weiderpass - Karolinska Institutet
Chi-Pan Wen - Natl Hlth Res Inst, Taipei, Taiwan
Andrea Werdecker - Federal Reserve
Shelley Wilson - University of Washington
Mamo Wubshet - Arba Minch University
Lin Xiao - Emory University
Bereket Yakob - University of KwaZulu-Natal
Yuichiro Yano - Northwestern Univ, Chicago, IL 60611 USA
Penpeng Ye - Natl Ctr Chron & Noncommunicable Dis Control & Pr, Beijing, Peoples R China
Naohiro Yonemoto - Kyoto University
Seok-Jun Yoon - University of Seoul
Mustafa Z. Younis - Jackson State University
Chuanhua Yu - Wuhan University
Zoubida Zaidi - Univ Hosp, Setif, Algeria
Maysaa El Sayed Zaki - Mansoura University
Anthony Lin Zhang - RMIT University
Ben Zipkin - University of Washington
Christopher J. L. Murray - University of Washington
Mohammad H. Forouzanfar - University of Washington
Emmanuela Gakidou - University of Washington
GBD 2015 Tobacco Collaborators
Publication Details: The Lancet (British edition), Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 22
Grant note: Bill AMP; Melinda Gates Foundation; CGIAR Bloomberg Philanthropies
Identifiers: 9940776408331
Academic Unit: King Abdulaziz University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article