Abstract
•Temporal instability analyzed in traffic safety data.•Statistical determination of structural breaks based on different models.•Linking role of factors and interventions in the formation of structural breaks.•A generic approach allowing models with varying underlying distributions.•Analyzed the effects of a decade long safety program on accident mortalities.
Extensive prior research has statistically analyzed the impact of infrastructural, policy, and environmental factors on road accidents, injuries, and mortalities. Most of these studies assumed long-term temporal stability in road safety data. These studies were later criticized for ignoring structural shifts in data over time caused by varying systemic influences such as socioeconomic and environmental factors, as well as major changes to road safety rules and networks. In this work, we proposed a novel four-phase methodology that identifies structural shifts or breaks in the road safety data and subsequently evaluates the role of various factors (including road safety interventions) in causing these breaks. The method is generalized, allowing different modeling bases and assumptions on the underlying data distribution. To demonstrate the merits of this methodology, we used it to investigate road accident mortality patterns in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and its subregions for the period 2010–2020, when a series of road safety interventions were introduced. The case study analysis revealed the varying impact of these interventions at both the provincial and governorate levels. These results can be used to evaluate the efficacy of road safety interventions. The lessons learned can help to develop more robust road safety management programs.