Abstract
Background: Incidence of cancer in Saudi Arabia has increased for the last two decades, ratcheting up to global levels. Yet, there is a dearth of research on the burden of lung cancer. This study examined the association between new cases of lung cancer and factors such as gender, age, and year of diagnosis; and forecast new cases and extrapolated future economic burden to 2030.
Methods: This a national-level cohort study that utilized the Saudi Cancer Registry data from 1999 to 2013. Multivariate regression was used; new lung cancer cases forecast and economic burden extrapolated to 20130. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of a range of epidemiologic and economic factors on the economic burden.
Results: Of the 166,497 new cancer cases (1999-2013), 3.8% was lung cancer. Males and Saudis had over threefold higher cases compared with females and non-Saudis, respectively. While the age group >= 65 years had 1.14 times or 14% increase in new cases, under-30 years had 97.2% fewer cases compared with age group 45-59. Compared with 1999, the period 2011-2013 had a 106% average increase. The years 2002-2010 registered an average 50% rise in new cases compared to 1999. New cases would rise to 1058 in 2030, an upsurge of 87% from 2013. The future economic burden was estimated at $2.49 billion in 2015 value, of which $520 million was attributable to care management and $1.97 billion in lost productivity. The economic burden for the period 2015-2030 will be $50.16 billion. The present value of this burden in 2015 values will be $34.60 billion, of which 21% will be attributable to care management. Estimates were robust to uncertainty, but the aged-standardized rate and 5-year survival rate would account for much of the variability compared with the economic factors.
Conclusion: Findings reveal an upsurge of lung cancer burden in incidence and potential economic burden, which may inform cancer control measures.