The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors with National Income, Urbanization, and Western Diet in 1980 and 2008

Goodarz Danaei; Gitanjali M. Singh; Christopher J. Paciorek; John K. Lin; Melanie J. Cowan; Mariel M. Finucane; Farshad Farzadfar; Gretchen A. Stevens; Leanne M. Riley; Yuan Lu; Mayuree Rao; Majid Ezzati; Geir Aamodt; Ziad Abdeen; Nabila A. Abdella; Hanan F. Abdul Rahim; Juliet Addo; Wichai Aekplakorn; Mustafa M. Afifi; Enrico Agabiti-Rosei; Carlos A. Aguilar Salinas; Charles Agyemang; Mohamed M. Ali; Mohannad Al-Nsour; Abdul R. Al-Nuaim; Ramachandran Ambady; Pertti Aro; Fereidoun Azizi; Carlo M. Barbagallo; Marco Antonio M. Barbieri; Alberto Barcelo; Sandhi M. Barreto; Henrique Barros; Leonelo E. Bautista; Athanase Benetos; Peter Bjerregaard; Cecilia Bjoerkelund; Simona Bo; Martin Bobak; Enzo Bonora; Babu V. Bontha; Manuel A. Botana; Pascal Bovet; Juergen Breckenkamp; Monique M. Breteler; Grazyna Broda; Ian J. Brown; Michael Bursztyn; Antonio Cabrera de Leon; Hannia Campos; Francesco P. Cappuccio; Vincenzo Capuano; Edoardo Casiglia; Maurizio Castellano; Katia Castetbon; Luis Cea; Chih-Jen Chang; Noureddine Chaouki; Somnath Chatterji; Chien-Jen Chen; Zhengming Chen; Jin-Su Choi; Lily Chua; Renata Cifkova; Linda J. Cobiac; Richard S. Cooper; Anna Maria Corsi; Michael C. Costanza; Cora L. Craig; Rachel S. Dankner; Saeed Dastgiri; Elias Delgado; Gonul Dinc; Yasufumi Doi; Guang-Hui Dong; Eleonora Dorsi; Nico Dragano; Adam Drewnowski; Robert W. Eggertsen; Paul Elliott; Anders Engeland; Cihangir Erem; Alireza Esteghamati; Caroline H. D. Fall; Jian-Gao Fan; Catterina Ferreccio; Leopold Fezeu; Joselia O. Firmo; Hermes J. Florez; Nelida S. Fornes; F. Gerry R. Fowkes; Guido Franceschini; Fredrik Frisk; Flavio D. Fuchs; Eva L. Fuller; Linn Getz; Simona Giampaoli; Luis F. Gomez; Juan M. Gomez-Zumaquero; Sidsel Graff-Iversen; Janet F. Grant; Ramiro Guerrero Carvajal; Martin C. Gulliford; Rajeev Gupta; Prakash C. Gupta; Oye Gureje; Tine W. Hansen; Jun Hata; Jiang He; Noor Heim; Joachim Heinrich; Tomas Hemmingsson; Anselm Hennis; William H. Herman; Victor M. Herrera; Suzanne Ho; Michelle Holdsworth; Gunilla Hollman Frisman; Wilma M. Hopman; Akhtar Hussain; Abdullatif Husseini; M. Mohsen Ibrahim; Nayu Ikeda; Bjarne K. Jacobsen; Hashem Y. Jaddou; Tazeen H. Jafar; Mohsen Janghorbani; Grazyna Jasienska; Michel R. Joffres; Jost B. Jonas; Othman A. Kadiki; Ofra Kalter-Leibovici; Raoul M. Kamadjeu; Ioannis Karalis; Mika J. Kastarinen; Joanne Katz; Lital Keinan-Boker; Paul Kelly; Omid Khalilzadeh; Young-Ho Khang; Stefan Kiechl; Ki Woong Kim; Yutaka Kiyohara; Junji Kobayashi; Maressa P. Krause; Ruzena Kubinova; Pawel Kurjata; Yadlapalli S. Kusuma; Tai Hing Lam; Arnulf Langhammer; Carlene M. M. Lawes; Cai Le; Jeannette Lee; Claire Levy-Marchal; Yanping Li; Yuqiu Li; Stephen Lim; T. O. Lim; Xu Lin; Cheng-Chieh Lin; Hsien-Ho Lin; Lars Lind; Lauren Lissner; Xiaoqing Liu; Patricio Lopez-Jaramillo; Roberto Lorbeer; Guansheng Ma; Stefan Ma; Francesc Macia; David R. MacLean; Stefania Maggi; Dianna J. Magliano; Marcia Makdisse; Giuseppe Mancia; Toshifumi Mannami; Pedro Marques-Vidal; Jean Claude N. Mbanya; Norma McFarlane-Anderson; Roberto Miccoli; Juhani Miettola; Hoang V. Minh; Juan F. Miquel; J. Jaime Miranda; Mostafa K. Mohamed; V. Mohan; Salim Mohanna; Ali Mokdad; Willem F. Mollentze; Dante D. Morales; Karen Morgan; Lorenza M. Muiesan; Sergio Muntoni; Iraj Nabipour; Tomoko Nakagami; Vinay Nangia; Barbara Nemesure; Martin Neovius; Kjersti A. Nerhus; Flavio Nervi; Hannelore Neuhauser; Minh Nguyen; Toshiharu Ninomiya; Marianna Noale; Sang W. Oh; Takayoshi Ohkubo; Oliviero Olivieri; Ayse Emel Oenal; Altan Onat; Myriam Orstegui; Hermann Ouedraogo; Wen-Harn Pan; Demosthenes B. Panagiotakos; Francesco Panza; Yongsoo Park; Valeria M. A. Passos; Mangesh S. Pednekar; Marco A. Peres; Cynthia Perez; Roman Perez-Fernandez; Rafael Pichardo; Hwee Pin Phua; Francesco Pistelli; Pedro Plans; Maria Polakowska; Neil Poulter; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Qing Qiao; Masoud Rafiei; Olli T. Raitakari; Luiz R. Ramos; Sanjay Rampal; Lekhraj Rampal; Finn Rasmussen; Kanala K. R. Reddy; Josep Redon; Luis Revilla; Victoria Reyes-Garcia; Ragab B. Roaeid; Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo; Rosalba Rojas-Martinez; Kimmo Ronkainen; Luis Rosero-Bixby; Gregory A. Roth; Harshpal S. Sachdev; Jose R. Sanchez; Selim Y. Sanisoglu; Susana Sans; Nizal Sarraf-Zadegan; Marcia Scazufca; Beatriz D. Schaan; Norberto Schapochnik; Hedi Schelleman; Ione J. C. Schneider; C. Mary Schooling; Bernhard Schwarz; Cevad Sekuri; Martha S. Sereday; Lluis Serra-Majem; Jonathan Shaw; Abdul S. Shera; Zumin Shi; Rahman Shiri; Xiao Ou Shu; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Egle Silva; Leon A. Simons; Margaret Smith; Stefan Soederberg; Suharko Soebardi; Vincenzo Solfrizzi; Emily Sonestedt; Ahmet Soysal; Paer Stattin; Aryeh D. Stein; George S. Stergiou; Jochanan Stessman; Akihiro Sudo; Machi Suka; Valter Sundh; Kristina Sundquist; Johan Sundstroem; Andrew B. Swai; E. Shyong Tai; Kristian Tambs; Fikru Tesfaye; George N. Thomas; Margaret Thorogood; Reijo S. Tilvis; Martin Tobias; Liv E. Torheim; Peter Trenkwalder; Jaakko O. Tuomilehto; Josep A. Tur; Christophe Tzourio; Ana I. Uhernik; Flora A. Ukoli; Nigel Unwin; Stephen Vander Hoorn; Mark P. Vanderpump; Jose Javier Varo; Marit B. Veierod; Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez; Monique Verschuren; Lucie Viet; Salvador Villalpando; Jesus Vioque; Peter Vollenweider; Stefano Volpato; Ningli Wang; Ya X. Wang; Mark Ward; Sarwono Waspadji; Lennart X. Welin; Lars Wilhelmsen; Johann Willeit; Mark Woodward; Andre J. Xavier; Fei Xu; Liang Xu; Akira Yamamoto; Gonghuan Yang; Xiaoguang Yang; Li-Chia Yeh; Jin-Sang Yoon; Qisheng You; Zhijie Yu; Jian Zhang; Lei Zhang; Wei Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Global Burden Metab Risk Factors C

doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.001470

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The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors with National Income, Urbanization, and Western Diet in 1980 and 2008

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The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors with National Income, Urbanization, and Western Diet in 1980 and 2008

Goodarz Danaei, Gitanjali M. Singh, Christopher J. Paciorek, John K. Lin, Melanie J. Cowan, Mariel M. Finucane, Farshad Farzadfar, Gretchen A. Stevens, Leanne M. Riley, Yuan Lu, …

Circulation (New York, N.Y.), Vol.127(14), pp.1493-1502

09/04/2013

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.001470

PMID: 23481623

Abstract

Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems

Cardiovascular System & Cardiology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Peripheral Vascular Disease

Science & Technology

Background-It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008. Methods and Results-Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at approximate to Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI. Conclusions-The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented. (Circulation. 2013;127:1493-1502.)

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Title: The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors with National Income, Urbanization, and Western Diet in 1980 and 2008
Creators - without role: Goodarz Danaei - Harvard University
Gitanjali M. Singh - Harvard University
Christopher J. Paciorek - University of California, Berkeley
John K. Lin - Harvard University
Melanie J. Cowan - World Health Organization
Mariel M. Finucane - University of California, San Francisco
Farshad Farzadfar - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Gretchen A. Stevens - World Health Organization
Leanne M. Riley - World Health Organization
Yuan Lu - Harvard University
Mayuree Rao - Harvard University
Majid Ezzati - Imperial College London
Geir Aamodt
Ziad Abdeen
Nabila A. Abdella
Hanan F. Abdul Rahim
Juliet Addo
Wichai Aekplakorn
Mustafa M. Afifi
Enrico Agabiti-Rosei
Carlos A. Aguilar Salinas
Charles Agyemang
Mohamed M. Ali
Mohannad Al-Nsour
Abdul R. Al-Nuaim
Ramachandran Ambady
Pertti Aro
Fereidoun Azizi
Carlo M. Barbagallo
Marco Antonio M. Barbieri
Alberto Barcelo
Sandhi M. Barreto
Henrique Barros
Leonelo E. Bautista
Athanase Benetos
Peter Bjerregaard
Cecilia Bjoerkelund
Simona Bo
Martin Bobak
Enzo Bonora
Babu V. Bontha
Manuel A. Botana
Pascal Bovet
Juergen Breckenkamp
Monique M. Breteler
Grazyna Broda
Ian J. Brown
Michael Bursztyn
Antonio Cabrera de Leon
Hannia Campos
Francesco P. Cappuccio
Vincenzo Capuano
Edoardo Casiglia
Maurizio Castellano
Katia Castetbon
Luis Cea
Chih-Jen Chang
Noureddine Chaouki
Somnath Chatterji
Chien-Jen Chen
Zhengming Chen
Chien-Jen Chen
Jin-Su Choi
Lily Chua
Renata Cifkova
Linda J. Cobiac
Richard S. Cooper
Anna Maria Corsi
Michael C. Costanza
Cora L. Craig
Rachel S. Dankner
Saeed Dastgiri
Elias Delgado
Gonul Dinc
Yasufumi Doi
Guang-Hui Dong
Eleonora Dorsi
Nico Dragano
Adam Drewnowski
Robert W. Eggertsen
Paul Elliott
Anders Engeland
Cihangir Erem
Alireza Esteghamati
Caroline H. D. Fall
Jian-Gao Fan
Catterina Ferreccio
Leopold Fezeu
Joselia O. Firmo
Hermes J. Florez
Nelida S. Fornes
F. Gerry R. Fowkes
Guido Franceschini
Fredrik Frisk
Flavio D. Fuchs
Eva L. Fuller
Linn Getz
Simona Giampaoli
Luis F. Gomez
Juan M. Gomez-Zumaquero
Sidsel Graff-Iversen
Janet F. Grant
Ramiro Guerrero Carvajal
Martin C. Gulliford
Rajeev Gupta
Prakash C. Gupta
Oye Gureje
Tine W. Hansen
Jun Hata
Jiang He
Noor Heim
Joachim Heinrich
Tomas Hemmingsson
Anselm Hennis
William H. Herman
Victor M. Herrera
Suzanne Ho
Michelle Holdsworth
Gunilla Hollman Frisman
Wilma M. Hopman
Akhtar Hussain
Abdullatif Husseini
M. Mohsen Ibrahim
Nayu Ikeda
Bjarne K. Jacobsen
Hashem Y. Jaddou
Tazeen H. Jafar
Mohsen Janghorbani
Grazyna Jasienska
Michel R. Joffres
Jost B. Jonas
Othman A. Kadiki
Ofra Kalter-Leibovici
Raoul M. Kamadjeu
Ioannis Karalis
Mika J. Kastarinen
Joanne Katz
Lital Keinan-Boker
Paul Kelly
Omid Khalilzadeh
Young-Ho Khang
Stefan Kiechl
Ki Woong Kim
Yutaka Kiyohara
Junji Kobayashi
Maressa P. Krause
Ruzena Kubinova
Pawel Kurjata
Yadlapalli S. Kusuma
Tai Hing Lam
Arnulf Langhammer
Carlene M. M. Lawes
Cai Le
Jeannette Lee
Claire Levy-Marchal
Yanping Li
Yuqiu Li
Stephen Lim
T. O. Lim
Xu Lin
Cheng-Chieh Lin
Xu Lin
Hsien-Ho Lin
Lars Lind
Lauren Lissner
Xiaoqing Liu
Patricio Lopez-Jaramillo
Roberto Lorbeer
Roberto Lorbeer
Guansheng Ma
Stefan Ma
Francesc Macia
David R. MacLean
Stefania Maggi
Dianna J. Magliano
Marcia Makdisse
Giuseppe Mancia
Toshifumi Mannami
Pedro Marques-Vidal
Jean Claude N. Mbanya
Norma McFarlane-Anderson
Roberto Miccoli
Juhani Miettola
Hoang V. Minh
Juan F. Miquel
J. Jaime Miranda
Mostafa K. Mohamed
V. Mohan
Salim Mohanna
Ali Mokdad
Willem F. Mollentze
Dante D. Morales
Karen Morgan
Lorenza M. Muiesan
Sergio Muntoni
Iraj Nabipour
Tomoko Nakagami
Vinay Nangia
Barbara Nemesure
Martin Neovius
Kjersti A. Nerhus
Flavio Nervi
Hannelore Neuhauser
Minh Nguyen
Toshiharu Ninomiya
Marianna Noale
Sang W. Oh
Takayoshi Ohkubo
Oliviero Olivieri
Ayse Emel Oenal
Altan Onat
Myriam Orstegui
Hermann Ouedraogo
Wen-Harn Pan
Demosthenes B. Panagiotakos
Francesco Panza
Yongsoo Park
Valeria M. A. Passos
Mangesh S. Pednekar
Marco A. Peres
Cynthia Perez
Roman Perez-Fernandez
Rafael Pichardo
Hwee Pin Phua
Francesco Pistelli
Pedro Plans
Maria Polakowska
Neil Poulter
Dorairaj Prabhakaran
Qing Qiao
Masoud Rafiei
Olli T. Raitakari
Luiz R. Ramos
Sanjay Rampal
Lekhraj Rampal
Finn Rasmussen
Kanala K. R. Reddy
Josep Redon
Luis Revilla
Victoria Reyes-Garcia
Ragab B. Roaeid
Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo
Rosalba Rojas-Martinez
Kimmo Ronkainen
Luis Rosero-Bixby
Gregory A. Roth
Harshpal S. Sachdev
Jose R. Sanchez
Selim Y. Sanisoglu
Susana Sans
Nizal Sarraf-Zadegan
Marcia Scazufca
Beatriz D. Schaan
Norberto Schapochnik
Hedi Schelleman
Ione J. C. Schneider
C. Mary Schooling
Bernhard Schwarz
Cevad Sekuri
Martha S. Sereday
Lluis Serra-Majem
Jonathan Shaw
Abdul S. Shera
Zumin Shi
Rahman Shiri
Xiao Ou Shu
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Egle Silva
Leon A. Simons
Margaret Smith
Stefan Soederberg
Suharko Soebardi
Vincenzo Solfrizzi
Emily Sonestedt
Ahmet Soysal
Paer Stattin
Aryeh D. Stein
George S. Stergiou
Jochanan Stessman
Akihiro Sudo
Machi Suka
Valter Sundh
Kristina Sundquist
Johan Sundstroem
Andrew B. Swai
E. Shyong Tai
Kristian Tambs
Fikru Tesfaye
George N. Thomas
Margaret Thorogood
Reijo S. Tilvis
Martin Tobias
Liv E. Torheim
Peter Trenkwalder
Jaakko O. Tuomilehto
Josep A. Tur
Christophe Tzourio
Ana I. Uhernik
Flora A. Ukoli
Nigel Unwin
Stephen Vander Hoorn
Mark P. Vanderpump
Jose Javier Varo
Marit B. Veierod
Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez
Monique Verschuren
Lucie Viet
Salvador Villalpando
Jesus Vioque
Peter Vollenweider
Stefano Volpato
Ningli Wang
Ya X. Wang
Mark Ward
Sarwono Waspadji
Lennart X. Welin
Lars Wilhelmsen
Johann Willeit
Mark Woodward
Andre J. Xavier
Fei Xu
Liang Xu
Akira Yamamoto
Gonghuan Yang
Xiaoguang Yang
Li-Chia Yeh
Jin-Sang Yoon
Qisheng You
Zhijie Yu
Jian Zhang
Lei Zhang
Wei Zheng
Maigeng Zhou
Global Burden Metab Risk Factors C
Publication Details: Circulation (New York, N.Y.), Vol.127(14), pp.1493-1502
Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Number of pages: 18
Grant note: 23390361 / Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) MC_UP_A620_1016 / Medical Research Council; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC); European Commission MC_UP_A620_1016 / MRC; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC) T32DK007703 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DIABETES AND DIGESTIVE AND KIDNEY DISEASES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Diabetes & Digestive & Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) DK007703 / National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Diabetes & Digestive & Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust UK Medical Research Council (MRC); UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC)
Identifiers: 9939750008331
Academic Unit: King Abdulaziz University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article