Abstract
The drying shrinkage of concrete is one of the most important quantities to be estimated for concrete members and has therefore received considerable attention; however, most of the existing drying shrinkage prediction models do not give an estimate of the variability associated with the model. In this Paper, the modelling uncertainty of the drying shrinkage is predicted in addition to its mean value. In predicting the drying shrinkage, the codified Ross equation has been used. The uncertainty is predicted from the uncertainty of the variables used in the equation. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict the statistical distribution of the drying shrinkage of concrete. The model and simulation is applied to several sets of data found in the literature. In general, the model predicts the mean value and the variance of the drying shrinkage successfully. In addition, the model is easily implemented and requires relatively little effort and information. It was found that the log-normal distribution accurately describes the statistical distribution of the drying shrinkage of concrete.