Abstract
Sustainability in power generation mainly depends on the transition from fossils to sustainable energy resources. Biomass from the crop residue has huge potential for renewable power generation, but it is still not utilized to its full potential. This study presents a comprehensive methodology to evaluate and forecast the current and future availability of selective crop residue to generate renewable energy. A forecast model incorporating historical trends in the crop yield has been developed in MATLAB and implemented for crop residue based biomass resource assessment of five primary crops (wheat straw, rice husk, rice straw, cotton straw, corn stover, and bagasse) in order to estimate the energy generation potential for Pakistan from 2018 till 2035. It was found that about 40 million tonnes of crop residue was available in Pakistan for power generation in the year 2018 considering a residue removal (availability) factor of 50%. This translates to an estimated potential of about 11,000 MW of electricity generation capacity using crop residue derived biomass for 2018. This capacity is predicted to gradually increase up to 16,000 MW by the year 2035 based on the trends in the growth of crop production since 2001. The suitability of a potential region for the installation of 100 MW biomass-fired power plants was also assessed by calculating crop residue density and an equivalent collection radius (Re) of 50 km (km). Punjab province of Pakistan, being an agricultural province, with relatively better road infrastructure can sustain crop residue based power plants of up to 7000 MW cumulative capacity at various locations. The challenges, such as economic, logistics, regulatory and political barriers, in generating renewable energy from biomass along with their potential solutions were also discussed. The study also provides a baseline for future research to evaluate and forecast the growth in bio-power generation potential of any biomass resource in a region based on crop yield and area of the region.
•Assessment of renewable energy potential from selected crop residue in Pakistan.•Pakistan has an estimated power generation capacity of 11,000 MW from crop residue.•Forecast model to predict crop residue availability for power generation in future.•Model also helps to define biomass-based power plant location suitability.•Challenges such as economic, logistics, regulatory and political were also discussed.