Abstract
Predictive criteria for a first variceal hemorrhage lack substantial accuracy. Cross‐sectional studies suggest a close relationship between variceal pressure (VP) and the occurrence of variceal bleeding. In the present prospective cohort study, the significance of VP measurement for prediction of a first variceal bleed was assessed. Eighty‐seven patients with cirrhosis and large esophageal varices who had never developed variceal bleeding were followed for 12 months. The endpoint of the study was the presentation or not of a variceal hemorrhage. Thirty‐four patients (39%) were in Child's class A, 37 in class B (43%), and 16 in class C (18%). The median interval between endoscopic diagnosis of varices and the beginning of the study was 15 months. Twenty‐eight patients (32%) developed a variceal hemorrhage with a bleeding‐related mortality of 18% (n=5). The 1‐year mortality overall was 16% (n=14). Variables predictive of a first bleed identified by Cox proportional hazards regression model were: the level of VP, the North Italian Endoscopic Club (NIEC) score, and the interval between the diagnosis of varices and the start of the study. By adding VP to NIEC, a significant gain in prognostic accuracy was obtained (P = .003). In conclusion, the present study provides evidence that the level of VP is a major predictive factor for variceal hemorrhage, and that it provides further prognostic information in addition to the NIEC index.